Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 225.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
This is an interesting matchup right out of the All-Star break, and it should produce some fireworks. The way the Timberwolves have looked offensively heading into the break, plus the way the Bucks have looked defensively all season, has me expecting points.
The smart money agrees, as this total inched up from the open despite the tendency for games at Target Center to trend under. But the Wolves have scored in the 120s for 5 straight entering the break, including 129 against this Bucks squad. So their hot offense should do enough against the league’s 22nd-rated road defense.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Atlanta Hawks Over 245.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TSN
This is another total that’s only getting higher, and there’s plenty of reason to think we’ll see a true track meet in this game. These teams have met three times already this season, going over this total twice and averaging 247.7 points. It’s a situation that screams over, as the Hawks have the third-best over record at home and the highest plus/minus to the total in those games.
Toronto meanwhile is the NBA’s second-best over bet in road games, with the highest plus/minus themselves. The Raptors are also on a back-to-back here facing the up-tempo Atlanta attack, and with the Hawks playing no defense on a normal night I’m not expecting tons of stops in this game.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Charlotte Hornets @ Golden State Warriors -12.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-BA
It was cute that the Hornets went in and beat a collapsing Jazz team last night, but this should not be a good matchup for them. The Warriors are clinging to life in the playoff race, but starting to surge at the right time and in need of sure-fire wins against bad teams like this. There’s one easy way for a bad team to get blown out, and that’s getting buried under an avalanche of three-pointers.
I expect that here, as Golden State is a volume three-point shooting team and faces a Charlotte defense allowing opponents to shoot 42.3% from deep on the road. That’s by far the worst in the league, as is the 15.2 makes they allow per road game, so look for the Warriors to build a big lead from deep and never look back.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Portland Trail Blazers Over 218.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW
This Portland team is pretty bad, no getting around that, and the offense can be brutal a lot of the time. But that holds down the totals in their games to numbers that you just don’t see anywhere else in the NBA these days. So matching them up with a good team and/or an excellent offense, both of which are the case tonight, puts this low of a number within reach.
As we saw when the Timberwolves had two games in Portland before the break, a blowout of these lowly Blazers is an easy way to get over low totals. Denver also comes in on no rest after blowing out the Wizards last night, and that will have at least some impact on their defensive legs. The Blazers have been playing more up-tempo lately with Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons back in the lineup, so look for that style to help get over this number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Niagara -1.5 @ Canisius (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Niagara is on the rise in the MAAC, and this is a good time to back them at a cheap price. I’m following the smart money here that pushed the number through zero in this one after Canisius opened as a short favorite. That’s pretty notable since a lot of analytics sites including KenPom have Canisius winning this one.
But the Purple Eagles are simply the better team here, with a legit 7-footer and a couple microwave scorers on the wings. Their one true weakness of two-point defense isn’t something a bad shooting team from Canisius can really exploit, and I expect Niagara’s excellent three-point shooting to help them pull away. Follow the smart money and buy low on this conference contender.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2069-1868 ATS (+103.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.