Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Illinois Team Total Over 82.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on BTN
I’d be interested in the full-game total in this game, but just don’t think Penn State contributes enough scoring with Kanye Clary now off the team. I still expect the Illini to do their part though, as this elite offense goes up against a Nittany Lions team that hasn’t guarded anyone lately.
Illinois brings the nation’s 5th-best offense by adjusted efficiency into this matchup, and are averaging 82.8 PPG in conference play including 83.6 in road games. They should get plenty of easy buckets against a PSU team that’s 286th in opponent two-point percentage, and find their way over this total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Florida/Alabama Under 174.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Basically every part of me says this game is going to be the track meet of all track meets. But the system play I’ve been tracking says otherwise, and I’m not going against it. Every metrics site I trust says we’re headed over this number tonight, yet there’s been line movement against the analytics gurus as this total has ticked down a couple points.
That early sharp movement in what should be high-scoring games seems to never be wrong, so I’m following it here. I might regret this when an NBA game breaks out, but this is the highest total I’ve seen in a while so someone has to get a stop at some point to keep it under.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Furman/Samford Under 165.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
When you have the country’s top three-point shooting team in Samford involved, it’s tough to go with the under. But this number is based on results from earlier in the season and just too inflated, so I don’t think we see this one reach these heights.
Samford’s SoCon games have only gotten to this kind of scoring against Mercer where there were tons of free throws, and VMI who might be the worst defense in the country. On the whole, the Bulldogs are 11-3 under this total in conference play, and their past 10 games are 7-3 to the under against inflated totals like we’re seeing here.
Furman is also much more of an under team, going 7-3 to the under in their past 10 as well, with a 13-1 record under tonight’s total in SoCon play. The Paladins also actually make an effort to defend the three, and have the wing defenders to slow down Samford’s attack. While the offenses are elite and the pace should be up-tempo, I just think the number has gotten out of control here so I’m on the under.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Belmont @ Drake -9.5 (-110; Odds via Ceasars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I stayed away from Drake for their Sunday game as I thought there was a chance the Bulldogs would be looking ahead to today’s revenge spot. They ended up winning by 23 so the lookahead didn’t materialize, and that tells me they’re ready to smash Belmont tonight. They lost by 22 at Belmont in maybe their worst performance of the season, so I expect this veteran team to get their revenge.
While Belmont has been playing better lately, it’s been against the weaklings of the Missouri Valley. There are three solid teams in this league, the Bruins have visited two of them, and they’ve come away with losses by 30 and 23 points. The common thread is Belmont’s inability to guard anyone on the road, as their 327th-ranked two-point percentage defense gives up tons of easy looks. Drake happens to be an elite scoring team inside the arc, ranked 16th in two-point percentage, so look for those easy baskets to fuel their big revenge win.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Florida Team Total Over 81.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
It will be interesting to see how South Florida responds to winning the biggest game for the program in recent memory on Sunday. Smart money seems to think they’re overvalued in this one, dropping the spread a couple points, which in turn lowered their team total. That has me jumping in, as even if they aren’t able to cover a sizable number on the road, I have to try to take advantage of this UTSA defense.
The Roadrunners are 357th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, and only two teams in the country are more generous in three-point defense. Three’s happen to be USF’s specialty, as the Bulls are 38th in three-point percentage and 56th in the percentage of their points generated from downtown. USF hung 89 on UTSA in the first meeting, and the Roadrunners have allowed 84.6 regulation PPG in AAC play, so look for the Bulls to at least eclipse this team total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Marquette First Half Team Total Over 43 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on FS1
Something tells me Marquette will not be in a pleasant mood tonight. Getting run out at UConn on Saturday, with the accompanying trash talk from the Huskies, should have them ready to do terrible things to DePaul here. It’s not like the Blue Demons are going to offer much resistance as one of the most forgiving shooting defenses in the country, ranked 341st or worse in every opponent percentage metric.
DePaul is also 352nd in first half points allowed, and they gave up 48 before halftime to Marquette in the first meeting. The Golden Eagles are 15th nationally for first half scoring at home, so in a game where they’ll be getting some frustrations out, I see an early outburst from them.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Colorado State Team Total Over 74.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Colorado State is a tough matchup for New Mexico because of how the Lobos play. They simply don’t care about game state or situation they just want to run, playing at the country’s 6th-fastest adjusted tempo. They dial it up even more at home, and that’s going to give Colorado State’s excellent offense lots more possessions and opportunities.
The Rams are elite at scoring inside the arc, ranked 8th in two-point percentage and 15th in overall effective field goal rate. Those are the exact kinds of looks New Mexico tends to allow with their style, so they’ll be playing right into CSU’s hands here. Their defense at The Pit hasn’t been that great this season, and their past 5 MWC opponents are averaging 80.4 PPG. None of those teams have anything close to CSU’s offensive ability, so look for them to capitalize on the style and put up plenty of points tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2060-1863 ATS (+100.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.