Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers First Half Team Total Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
Washington is quickly becoming my favorite play-against team in the NBA, especially when they’re at home facing a good team. All they seem to do is give up an insane amount of points early on in a no-defense track meet, allowing a league-worst 64.2 first half points per game at home this season, and 64.9 the past 10 instances.
Cleveland is more than capable of taking advantage, as this team is scorching hot right now. During this 14-1 stretch their first half scoring has gone up 2.4 points above the season average. So they’re lighting teams up early and Washington is the most vulnerable first half defense, making me trust the Cavs to put up a big early number tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Wisconsin -5.5 @ Michigan (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on BTN
It’s tough to win on the road in the Big10, unless you’re headed to Ann Arbor. Things are going from bad to worse for Michigan, as this weekend the Wolverines had their 5th consecutive double-digit conference loss to a lowly Rutgers squad. That moved them to 2-9 in Big10 play overall, 1-6 in conference home games, and dropped them to 3-8 ATS in home games.
Wisconsin is in dire need of a bounce back here, and the opportunity to beat up on the conference’s worst team is one they can’t afford to miss. The Badgers and their deliberate style probably aren’t going to run away with this, but their offense is efficient enough to take advantage of Michigan’s awful defense, especially from long range. Against a team that looks like it has given up, I think Wisconsin can potentially hand the Wolverines another double-digit loss tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Valparaiso +20.5 @ Indiana State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Everyone is falling in love with this Indiana State team too quickly, and it’s pushing their numbers a little too high. The Sycamores are very good, and clearly the best team in the Valley after beating Drake over the weekend.
But that was their fourth very difficult game in a row, and they’re due for somewhat of a letdown. This Valparaiso squad is not in the same league as the Sycamores, but this is a lot of points considering the situation.
The Beacons have been much more competitive lately, going 7-2 ATS their past 9 games and 8-4 ATS in conference play. Indiana State can run away from any of the lower-tier Valley teams, but they get everyone’s best shot every night as the league darling, so I’ll take this big number with an improving Beacons squad.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Portland/Gonzaga First Half Over 76.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Scott Van Pelt might call this a general principle game or situation. When Gonzaga loses they are an unhappy bunch, and when they lose at home, well, it’s so rare that it’s nearly impossible to find reference points. But I’ve seen enough instances of the Bulldogs in angry mode that I know when they’re coming and what the result will be, which is what I see tonight.
I think the Zags put it on Portland from the opening tip, flying up and down the court against this awful defense. The Pilots are 335th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and there are only 12 teams in the country allowing a higher effective field goal rate. Gonzaga was suffocated by the excellent St Mary’s defense in their Saturday loss, so this will be a welcome change.
Portland is allowing 43.3 first half points against WCC teams not named Pacific, with those 7 games averaging 79.9 first half points. The pace will be crazy here, and in a national TV game Gonzaga will run it up in the first half, doing most of the work to get over this early total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Creighton/Providence Under 143.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on FS2
These are two teams in the top-25 of adjusted defensive efficiency, with Providence all the way up at 9th in the country. That’s a good explanation of why their first meeting only got to 129 total points, and that was a home game for Creighton where they’re far better offensively. Creighton’s effective field goal percentage drops 6.3 points on the road, and they also score 0.157 fewer points per possession.
That’s why the Bluejays have only had one Big East road game reach this total, and it needed overtime to get there. Providence meanwhile has only gone over this total in conference games against the fastest-paced and worst defensive teams in the Big East. As good as Creighton is offensively, they’re much slower than you’d think at 234th in adjusted tempo. With the Friars struggling offensively in general, a good Creighton defense should hold them down and create a defensive battle for this game.
Degenerates
NBA New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 @ LA Clippers (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
It’s Malinsky Special time here, as the Clippers return home from a 7-game road trip and are playing a little too well. With only one day off since their track meet of a game in Atlanta on Monday, this becomes a tough situational spot that might bite LA. Especially against a high-quality opponent like New Orleans who has already gone into Crypto and beaten the Clips once this season. That was in November before LA rounded into form, but the Pelicans are still playing well and have the situational advantage, so I’ll take the big number of points here.
Tiny Nick is 2019-1818 ATS (+98.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.