Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers/Golden State Warriors Over 243 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
It’s amazing that we’re over halfway through the regular season and this is the first meeting of these teams. The NBA wants to save the marketing and exposure opportunities, and putting this game on national TV is likely to produce an exciting game despite these squads being at the bottom of their division. I see that meaning points, and was surprised to see the total open as low as it did, but all the money pushing it up means over looks like the right side.
After all, we’re dealing with a Warriors team that has the second-best over record in the league, and a Lakers squad with the best over record on the road. Golden State’s home defense has really fallen off this season, and a Lakers team that’s 6th in both pace and shooting percentage will strain that defense here. These teams are a combined 14-6 to the over in their past 10 games, and I expect another tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Minnesota/Penn State Over 149.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on BTN
This is one of the lower totals you’ll see for a Penn State game the rest of the season, and I’m taking advantage with two good offenses squaring off. Minnesota has remained very consistent in one area despite their 4-game losing streak, and that’s scoring effectively inside the arc. Their outside shooting runs extremely hot and cold, but the Gophers are 20th nationally for two-point percentage.
A bad Nittany Lions defense happens to struggle the most with interior defense, ranked 269th in opponent two-point shooting. Penn State has yet to figure out decent offenses now that we’re well into conference play, allowing 82.4 PPG to Big10 opponents with those games averaging 157.6 points. The Nittany Lions are going to speed this game up as well with the 33rd-fastest adjusted tempo, so look for plenty of points in Happy Valley tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kansas @ Iowa State -2 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:30 PM CT on CBS
I’m going to trust my Cyclones against a highly rated opponent at Hilton one more time here. The Hilton Magic is tough to deny, even though they put a serious scare into me before pulling away from Kansas State on Wednesday night.
That game seemed to reflect a couple of things, first of which is the Clones seemed to think their 12-point halftime lead meant it was time to look ahead to this game. The other is that halftime lead itself, which highlighted ISU’s first half dominance this season as the country’s second-best team for average first half margin at home.
The Clones should be able to force turnovers and knock down shots here against a Kansas team that I think is overrated and struggles away from Phog Allen. There’s still some disrespect for ISU in the market that holds the line down today, but I’m confident in them being up for this game out of the gates and controlling the first half as usual.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) DePaul @ Creighton -14 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1
Creighton has been in four straight rough games, including a triple-overtime classic, so it’s time for an easy one. It doesn’t get much easier than DePaul these days, as the Blue Demons are the punching bag for seemingly every team they face. They’ve kept one Big East game within single digits, and the beatings usually start early as they’re 346th nationally for average first half margin. Creighton already put it on this team a few weeks ago on the road, leading by 17 at the half. Their excellent three-point shooting against DePaul’s 338th-rated perimeter defense is what’s needed to create big separation early, and I think the Jays take advantage for a welcome easy game.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1997-1784 ATS (+102.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.