Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Detroit Lions First Half Over 24 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on NBC

If you were on the over in Detroit last week and didn’t cash despite 38 points at halftime, my condolences. I’m not falling into that potential trap today, taking the first half to go over in a game where I expect a lot of scoring overall. The Lions are no stranger to fast starts, scoring the 4th-most first half points in the league this year, with their home games averaging 25.4 PPG before halftime.

The biggest reason I expect early points is how I’m seeing this game get played from the start. Neither team will be able to run the ball very effectively, as Tampa’s 29th-rated rush offense will have no success against Detroit’s top-rated run defense. But the Lions are 29th in PFF’s coverage grade so the Bucs should attack through the air, and that will force Detroit to respond in kind. Plenty of passing from the start against vulnerable secondaries should produce a lot of scoring opportunities early on, getting this over the total.

NFL (1 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs/Buffalo Bills Under 45.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on CBS

The days of these teams getting into epic shootouts seem to be done. But people are sure to remember those games, particularly the infamous 13 seconds game, so we get a total here that’s a little inflated.

The past two meetings have gone under the posted total and this one, including the 20-17 Buffalo win earlier this season (and yes Toney haters, it still would’ve gone under if that play counted). The Chiefs just aren’t a good over bet anymore, going 5-13 to the over this season for the worst over percentage in the league. With a vastly improved defense and vastly diminished passing game, they just aren’t that team who got into several shootouts with the Bills for years.

Buffalo trended to the under this season as well, and their focus on running the ball since firing Ken Dorsey helps keep games lower scoring. Perhaps the most fascinating stat around this game is Kansas City games going 16-2 under the second half total and 17-1 under the 4th quarter total. Scoring falling off a cliff like that keeps any under alive, and I think we see it stay under the total again tonight.

NFL Sunday Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Chris Godwin Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Cade Otton Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Rachaad White Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Rachaad White Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jared Goff Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Cade Otton Longest Reception Over 15.5 Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Cade Otton Over 3.5 Receptions (+130)

0.5 Unit – Chris Godwin Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (-110)

0.25 Unit – Chris Godwin Anytime TD (+215)

0.25 Unit – Cade Otton Anytime TD (+350)

0.75 Unit – James Cook Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Rashee Rice Over 6.5 Receptions (+100)

0.75 Unit – Kahlil Shakir Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Isaiah Pacheco Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 26.6 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Rashee Rice Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Isaiah Pacheco Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Under 255.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Josh Allen Under 225.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Anytime TD (-110)

0.25 Unit – Kahlil Shakir 50+ Receiving Yards (+180)

0.25 Unit – Kahlil Shakir 60+ Receiving Yards (+270)

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Oregon @ Utah -5.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’m always looking to fade coastal Pac12 teams on the second leg of the elevation road trip. That’s where we find Oregon today, with the Ducks having to contend with an incredible home-court advantage for Utah. On the season, the Utes are winning their home games by an average 22.6 point margin, and covering the number by a 9.7 point average margin. Oregon started hot in league play against weak competition, but now they’re up against a truly good team as Utah is top-25 at KenPom. That’s also where an 8-point win is being projected for the home squad, so I’m backing the Utes to roll again.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Indiana State Team Total Over 80.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN2

If you haven’t caught any of Indiana State’s incredible offense this season, it’s worth tuning in to this one during breaks of the Bucs/Lions game. The Sycamores are loaded with shooters, and boast the country’s top effective field goal percentage. They also have zero fear from deep where they shoot it at the second-best rate in the country, and the percentage of points they get from three’s is 8th nationally.

Murray State is pretty weak defensively, ranked 299th in effective field goal defense and 296th in three-point defense, so Indiana State should be able to keep lighting it up here. The Sycamores have gone over this total 11 times already this season and are by far the best offense the Racers have seen, so expect them to clear it once again today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1969-1763 ATS (+98.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.