Decreasing the current Swedish gambling tax rate could improve channelisation rates for onshore online operators, Nordblom suggests, by attracting more Swedish players to the licensed market.  

The motion, published on 2 October, also urged parliament to investigate the link between tax and channelisation to help it consider other measures that could improve the rate of players directed towards the legal market.  

“The majority of operators have warned that the degree of channeling, the level of gambling that takes place in the Swedish licensed gaming market is decreasing,” the motion said. 

“The consequences of this will be that Swedish players turn to foreign gambling companies without a Swedish gambling license.”  

Is channelisation on the decline? 

Channelisation rates have fallen to between 69% and 82% in Sweden, horseracing monopoly ATG estimated in a Q4 2023 report. It projected a continuing decline of the rate based on data recorded throughout 2023.  

Gaming regulator Spekinspektionen set a target to achieve 90% channelisation to legal operators when it liberalised the online gambling market in 2019. But the regulator’s latest estimates suggest channelisation sits at around 86%, based on various surveys asking gamblers which sites they use.  

The estimated rate is based on the assumption that players are betting equal amounts across legal and illegal sites, although Spelinspektionen itself said this was unlikely. Players betting illegally are more likely to wager higher amounts, it acknowledged.  

The rate could be as low as 78%, assuming turnover per visit is twice as much on a black-market website compared to a licensed website, Spelinspektionen said. This is still higher than its 77% estimate in 2022.  

Swedish Gambling Association (BOS) places the channelisation rate at around 77%. For online casino specifically, rates drop across the board. Spelinspektionen puts it at 81%, BOS at 72% and ATG at 58%.

“Sweden still has a lot of work to do if it is to succeed in achieving at least 90% channelisation. This work must include both repressive measures to keep unlicensed operators away, as well as liberalisation of the licensed gambling market in order to increase the attractiveness from the consumer’s perspective,” BOS chief Gustav Hoffstedt told iGB.

The gambling tax rate was increased from 18% to 22% in July. The government expected the rise to generate SEK500m (£37.4m/€43.9m/$48.6m) in additional tax revenue each year. 

The hike threatened to increase costs and damage the horseracing industry, ATG warned at the time, while others also protested the policy.  

BOS at the time warned the hike would seriously impact channelisation rates as gamblers are faced with increased costs.  

It estimated between 2,881 and 6,085 individuals could switch to unlicensed alternatives.