The Toronto Maple Leafs are making a big gamble on what they have in the net…again.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are putting a lot of faith in Joseph Woll, who has dealt with injuries every year since 2021, and Anthony Stolarz, who has yet to prove enough to earn a starting job from any team in the NHL despite having seven seasons of experience.
But the Maple Leafs’ gambling on goaltenders is nothing new. Last year, Ilya Samsonov was one of, if not the worst, goalies in the NHL for half the season, yet the Leafs still managed to make the playoffs comfortably. Though sticking with him arguably cost them at least a trip to the second round.
This team is good enough to make the playoffs with just about anything standing in front of its net, and this is the main reason why I love the Leafs front office gambling on two guys with upside.
The Toronto Maple Leafs high risk, high-reward goaltending situation
Samsonov’s two seasons in Toronto were opposites. He came to the Maple Leafs after a poor year with the Washington Capitals, finishing with -12.5 goals saved above expected (GSAx). Then, in his first year in the blue and white, Samsonov had the best year of his career, saving 17.4 GSAx in 2022-23.
Then we all know the story of last year, with him finishing with a career-worst -14.9 GSAx, so the Maple Leafs gambling on goaltending is nothing new. Still, this year’s duo is at least a more calculated gamble than rolling with Samsonov, whose ceiling was pushing a top-10 goalie, but the floor was the worst goalie in the NHL (via HockeyReference).
Woll’s risk comes from his history of injuries and being unavailable to stay on the ice. As for Stolarz, the risk comes from people not trusting him because he has not had a significant role on any team for over seven seasons in the NHL.
But when you combine his 74 games played over the last three years, he ranks 16th in GSAx, second in high-danger save percentage and 6th in high-danger goals saved above expected among goalies in the NHL who have played at least 500 minutes in the last three seasons (via NaturalStatTrick).
Over the last three years, Stolarz has saved 19.6 goals above expected, and the only year he finished with a negative GSAx number was 2022-23 when playing for the Anaheim Ducks, the worst defensive team in hockey that season.
Woll had a rough end to the season; he never looked right after returning from that injury, but before going down, he looked like a legitimate top-15 goalie in the NHL. Before December 7th, 2023 (Woll’s injury date), he ranked ninth in GSAx, 15th in GSAx per 60 minutes, 14th in high-danger save percentage and sixth in high-danger goals saved above expected.
With Stolarz being dominant in short stints and Woll continuing to develop into a promising young starting goalie, the ceiling for this duo is exceptionally high. It may not be elite, but it certainly would be good enough to get the job done if both stay on the path they have been on.
Unlike Samsonov, these two have been relatively consistent in the net; the risk this tandem presents comes from uncertainty and Stolarz’s being an unknown product. I attribute that to him being stuck in Anaheim for four of the last five years but also to injury, which nobody can predict.
manual
It is scary because there isn’t much protection, and one serious injury could blow this up, but if Woll stays on the ice and Stolarz is as advertised, this could be one of the better tandems in hockey.