Once again, it was a profitable time here in this ponks column for college football. I ended the season in the black which I’m pleased with for a side job’s side job. Such is life.

Last year went pretty well as the resident investor/degenerate on this here blog. I finished in the black (in PONKS), ended the season on a 7-3 in bowl season and then sat on the winnings for a cool eight months. That 529 ain’t gonna grow itself.

So we’re revving back up with a nice and tidy sheet as we roll into COLLEGE FOOTBALL. And let me tell you, I am geared up for the start of it. I’m just going to share these updated rules and then move onto futures & Week 0. FOOTBALL BABY!!!

Step #1: Don’t be afraid to bet against your favorite team

Maybe be afraid to, there’s nothing worse than hedging your happiness. Those dollars don’t fill the hole you made in your heart by betting against them.

Step #2: Do the due diligence of predicting the season

Love it. More to come.

Step #3: Don’t be afraid of the obvious bets

Same. But be smarter.

Step #4: Track your picks/funds

Considering how easy it can be to get lost in all the apps & sites & shady backrooms, it’s important to know where your money is going and coming from. It also helps highlight any biases you may have (if you cannot discern them yourself).

Step #5: Be cognizant of your biases

This is an extension of #1 but really comes to bear throughout a season. Am I way too high on Purdue right now because they have the best QB not named CJ Stroud in the conference? Am I too low on Penn State because I lost some money on them last year? Probably and yes.

Step #6: Don’t bet outside your means

Obviously. Probably move this one up to for this season.

Alright. So we’re circling back to step #2. Here’s how I see this season shaking out.

All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

Here is where my biases come out most. My favorite wagers start with the Boilermakers. I think Aidan O’Connell in Jeff Brohm’s offense is enough to push the Boilers into Indianapolis with one hang up: they haven’t beaten Wisconsin since this bettor was 13 years old. But if things can break their way and they find themselves on a home field against a top 5 team…watch out. So I’m putting a half unit on the Boilers +3000 to win the conference. I also find Michigan +600 incredibly disrespectful for the defending champs and laying a unit there, as well.

My favorite season win/loss bets are:

• Northwestern OVER 4 (Even year Wildcats) – 1u to win 1
• Nebraska UNDER 7.5 (any year Scott Frost) – 1.1u to win 1
• Penn State UNDER 8.5 (beware the team after their coach gets an extension. cc: Kirk Ferentz & Mel Tucker) – 1.15u to win 1
• Purdue OVER 7.5 (see above) – 1u to win 1.2

Week 0 Lines

I liked the Northwestern line a lot more when it briefly got to +14 earlier this week. However, Nebraska truly embarrassed Fitz last season and the guy has a very long memory. It also seems really silly to play an Irish-American in Ireland. NORTHWESTERN +350 (1u to win 3.5) & +12 (1.1u to win 1) If you need a stat, Northwestern is 4-1 STRAIGHT UP in first games where they are underdogs.

As far as the other Big Ten game on the docket, the 44 number scares the heck out of me BUT, Bret Bielema guided Illinois to hit the under in four of six games last year where the O/U was in the 40s. Add to it, Craig Bohl-led Wyoming teams are 3-9-1 against the over in non-conference road games. Hold your nose and go UNDER 44 (1.1u to win 1).

And there you have it. With two years of PONKS under my belt come years of wisdom by staying on the straight and narrow with tracking, predicting the season, and not being afraid of the obvious.

I’m sure there will be more to come but let’s enjoy this season – it’s sure to be a great one…

Unless my Iowa prediction comes through.