Locks
NBA (1 Unit) LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets -6 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN
Traditionally, Lebron James-led teams have taken Game 1 of a playoff series to feel out an opponent, often resulting in a lopsided loss. That hasn’t been the case this postseason with the Lakers winning both opening games, but I think that changes here. The Nuggets are simply a different kind of opponent than LA has faced so far, with the size and ability to match physicality that the Grizzlies and Warriors didn’t present.
There’s also the elite shooting and ultra-efficient offense that Denver brings in home games, ranking 1st in shooting percentage and 2nd in offensive efficiency at Ball Arena this year. That’s helped them to their 30-16-1 home ATS mark throughout the regular and post seasons. Conversely, the Lakers struggled against the number on the road, and this aging team has a rest disadvantage while traveling to elevation. Denver was dominant in their opening games against the Timberwolves and Suns, so expect them to start fast in this series as well.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Lakers/Nuggets Over 222 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
One thing to note about those opening wins in the other rounds for the Lakers is they were both very high-scoring games. They played an up-tempo style in both, and I think that faster pace will show up again tonight. LA needs to get out in transition to boost an offense that’s been sluggish in the half-court, and Denver also happens to be elite at scoring in the open floor and usually looks to push tempo at home. I don’t think I’ll be messing with totals as the urgency level grows later in this series, but this opening game should have plenty of points.
Bonus Prop Bets:
(0.5 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 51.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
As long as this number is under his playoff average of 53.2 I’m willing to jump in, especially in what could be a statement game at home.
(0.25 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+175; Odds via DraftKings)
He’s drained multiple three’s in 6 of 11 playoff games and is shooting 47.5% from deep. I think Anthony Davis and the Lakers will dare him to shoot from outside and he’ll take advantage.
(0.5 Unit) Bruce Brown Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Brown is looking like the most trustworthy of all Denver’s role players, which is important due to Mike Malone’s tendency to really shorten the rotation. This is below Brown’s average for the playoffs, and with so many other elite weapons for LA to worry about, he should quietly produce enough to get over here.
(Degenerate Only) Anthony Davis Over 38.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
It’s really tough to gauge what you’ll get from Davis as he seesaws back and forth between great games and subpar ones. I’m also concerned about the potential for a Nuggets blowout keeping LA starter minutes down, but if the Lakers have any chance of competing here, AD will need one of his excellent playoff performances.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Seattle Mariners -1.5 @ Boston Red Sox (+105; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on NESN
I really wish the Mariners hadn’t crushed Boston in last night’s game, as that result immediately drove up the price to back Seattle again here. The Mariners definitely seem to be figuring it out offensively, especially against poor pitching. That’s what they’ll see tonight in the totally untrustworthy Nick Pivetta, whose 6.23 ERA is actually outperforming his 6.67 expected ERA. If the Mariners can get to him, then Luis Castillo will hold down a struggling Boston team that has crashed back to earth with 5 losses by multiple runs in their past 7 games.
MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports SD
Royals starter Brady Singer has been a curious case this season with a sky-high 7.71 ERA that looks fairly justified by his deeper metrics. But he’s had several games where he dominated good lineups with strong splits against righties, along with getting crushed by teams that are far less impressive at the plate. That might be good news for San Diego who struggles against righties, but is far too talented for that to continue.
Singer himself has allowed 5 or more runs in 5 of 8 starts this season, and a bullpen with the 4th-highest ERA in the league presents more opportunity for the Padres to pile up runs here. Singer is also coming off one of those three strangely impressive starts in allowing just a single run to the White Sox. But he was crushed the following game in the other two instances, and I expect regression for the KC starter today that allows the Padres to get over this total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1272-1121 ATS (+69.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.