Locks

NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks/Miami Heat Over 206.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

This total seems a little artificially depressed after Game 3 went well under. But that was caused by the game being well in hand for Miami the whole way, and an outlier 4th quarter of just 34 points. The pace actually picked up somewhat in that game compared to the first two of the series, but the teams combining to shoot 36.5% from the floor and 20.8% from deep will kill an over every time.

So I expect to see a return to the results of Games 1 and 2, even though the Knicks are on the road here where they’re less efficient offensively. There’s such a solid offensive floor from Miami, who’s scored no less than 105 points every game this series, that a total this low becomes easily attainable. And with Immanuel Quickley likely out tonight that forces more minutes on the Knick starters, and improves offensive potential. That and positive shooting regression should get this over the low number.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Julius Randle Double-Double (+190; Odds via BetRivers)

Randle looked pretty rough offensively in Game 3 as did a lot of Knicks players, but he still managed to record 10 points and 14 boards for his second double-double this series. I don’t think the rebounding goes anywhere, as New York has cut down on Mitchell Robinson’s minutes and Randle is getting tons of rebound chances. This price is just too good to pass up for a guy that has had some monster scoring games against Miami, and will continue to clean the glass.

NBA (1 Unit) Anthony Davis Under 38.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

The Anthony Davis pendulum is real, and looks like it’s swinging back to a mediocre-at-best performance for him tonight. Saturday was the 5th time in these playoffs that AD has put up more than 30 combined points and rebounds. In the previous 4 instances, he has averaged 23.3 the following game, getting nowhere near this total. The Brow just goes docile for whatever reason, with far less field goal and free throw attempts, plus his rebounding numbers plummet. This total is counting on him building on Saturday’s good game, but that just hasn’t happened and I have to respect the trend.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Texas Rangers/Seattle Mariners Over 7.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

These offenses can be wildly inconsistent, especially Seattle’s, but they’re both too good to not take advantage of pitchers that are getting too much respect. Jon Gray for Texas in particular is having a much worse season than even his 4.40 ERA would indicate, as his expected ERA of 6.18 and fielding independent of 6.22 show plenty of underlying problems. The Seattle lineup has had plenty of success against him too, with a cumulative .315 average and 1.002 OPS in their careers.

And while Logan Gilbert is actually performing better than his 4.01 ERA indicates, he’s up against a Rangers team that’s crushing everything right now. Texas has put up 9.7 runs per game over the last week, batting .316 as a team with a .500 slugging percentage. If the Rangers can keep any of that red-hot hitting going here, then the Mariners should produce enough against Gray to get over this extremely low total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1256-1102 ATS (+72.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.