Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Philadelphia 76ers Over 214 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN
After going over easily in Game 1, it took a terrible offensive performance from the Philadelphia 76ers to keep Game 2 from going over this number and a very slow start in Game 3 to keep it close. I thought a home game might wake up James Harden and this 76ers offense but Boston again kept Philadelphia in check in Game 3. Although the Sixers struggled, Boston still did just enough to get that one over this total and while I again expect this to be a close game, I think Philadelphia can contribute enough against one of the most proficient offenses in the NBA to get us over this low total once again.
NBA (1 Unit) Kevin Durant Over 35.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on TNT
As I’ve said over and over again, it’s all about usage rate here, and Durant will get one of the highest workloads of any player in this game once again. As I’ve said before, the Suns bet everything on their first unit being unstoppable, and in the playoffs that means they have to keep their stars on the floor even longer to avoid bench minutes from no-name players such as Ish Wainright. That resulted in KD seeing 44 minutes per game in their last series, 43 minutes in Game 3, and that’s not going to slow down here barring a potential blowout.
Chris Paul being out with a groin injury proved that Durant and Devin Booker will have to handle the ball more than ever before, as we saw in Game 3. Durant put up 31 shots on Friday when everyone knew it was coming so I’m looking for more of the same today. Once again throw in the addition of rebounds counting towards his total after Durant’s 13 rebound performance in Game 1 and this is a no-brainer for me.
NBA (1 Unit) Devin Booker Over 31.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on TNT
It really has become “Booker, Durant or Bust” right now for the Phoenix Suns to have any chance of advancing. The dynamic duo of Durant and Booker combined for 56 of the Suns 95 shots on Friday night and quite frankly it was their only chance of getting a win. Booker has been an absolute flame-thrower in these playoffs so far and it’s time to give him the respect he deserves. After putting up nearly 50 on Friday night I see Booker putting on another show for the home crowd in a game that Phoenix is going to need every bit of it.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1253-1104 ATS (+69.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.