Locks
NBA (1 Unit) LA Lakers/Golden State Warriors 1st Half Over 115.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
The other Game 2’s that have been played at very low scoring levels has me a little concerned, but I’m mostly looking at how these teams played and could have played in their opener. That was a fairly up-tempo game, but one where the Lakers were awful from deep, and the Warriors extremely pedestrian from inside the arc. They still managed to get over the full-game total, and crushed the first half with 129 points. If I know the Warriors, they’ll be out for blood in this game, and that generally means everything goes in for them early. Add in some improved 3-point shooting for LA and I see plenty of points before halftime.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Steph Curry Over 30.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
He got mad and took matters into his own hands after a disappointing Warriors performance in Game 6 against Sacramento, dropping 50 to win the series. Tuesday was another fairly disappointing game for him and his team where he only went 10-of-24 from the field. I’ll play the narrative angle here and expect a massive game from Curry in a desperation spot for the Warriors.
MLB (1 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ Colorado Rockies (-105; Odds via Caesars): 2:10 PM CT on SportsNet RM
The Brewers haven’t looked all that spectacular in their visit to Denver yet, but they’ve faced left-handed starters in both games. Milwaukee is one of the worst teams in the league against lefties, so seeing right-hander Connor Seabold today will be a good change for them.
While they aren’t elite against righties either, Seabold is nothing to be afraid of as he’s a reliever making a spot start here. That means the Colorado bullpen that’s allowed the 4th-most runs in baseball will see even more action.
And on the other side is the most surprising member of the Brewer rotation in Wade Miley. His 1.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP has been built up against some impressive opponents, all of which are better against lefties than Colorado. Miley hasn’t gotten great run support so far, but I see that changing today against poor Rockies pitching, and should result in an easy Brewers win.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on MLB Network
I’m targeting Jesus Luzardo, who had an excellent start to the season, for continued regression in this game. The Miami lefty has been giving up considerably more production in his past 4 starts, and now has to face an Atlanta team that feasts on left-handed pitching. The Braves rank 3rd in OPS, 3rd in weighted on-base average, and 4th in weighted runs created against lefties this season, continuing their excellence in that split from last year. The overall total and consequently this isolated number is held down by several overvalued factors, but I expect Atlanta to produce enough to get over their number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1245-1096 ATS (+70.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.