Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Kevin Durant Over 34.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9 PM CT on TNT
As I said on Saturday, it’s all about usage rate here in my opinion, and Durant will get one of the highest workloads of any player in this game once again. The Suns bet everything on their first unit being unstoppable, and in the playoffs that means they have to keep their stars on the floor even longer to avoid bench minutes from no-name players such as Ish Wainright. That resulted in KD seeing 44 minutes per game in their last series, and that’s plenty of potential opportunity for him to get to this number. My main concern here is the starters getting pulled in a blow out, but it only took him well less than his 36 minutes played in a blowout Saturday to get over this number.
I don’t think Denver has a defender to slow Durant down in the points department, and he’ll have to be a big contributor on the glass against a tall Nuggets team. He dropped 29 and 30 points against the Suns in two late-season matchups and is averaging 28.5 in the playoffs (including a 29 point, 15 rebound Game 1 against Denver). So add in the needed rebounding, and he should find his way over this prop.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Phoenix Suns/Denver Nuggets Over 227 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
As I said on Saturday, there should be plenty of minutes for the elite starting lineup of Phoenix which only helps scoring, especially if they get worn out in the Denver altitude. That should create weakened effort on defense that the Nuggets can exploit with one of the most efficient offenses in the league. It helps that Phoenix is one of the better over bets on the road this season, so far allowing 125, 126 and 128 points in their three games at Denver this year. Despite it being the second round of the playoffs, there’s just too much elite offensive potential from both teams to try to sweat an under here. And as we saw on Saturday, even if one teams offense isn’t on fire, the the opposing side is good enough to carry it over 229 anyways.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1246-1092 ATS (+74.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.