Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat/NY Knicks Over 208 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ABC
This total is held down by the Knicks going 5-0 to the under in the first round. But that was against the league’s best defensive team in Cleveland, plus the Cavaliers couldn’t score all series. It’s also being held down by Miami’s regular season profile as a low-scoring and poor shooting team.
But I don’t think the Heat cool off at all here after torching the Bucks last round. New York’s effective field goal percentage defense is considerably worse than Milwaukee’s was all season, so don’t expect Miami’s scoring to just fall off.
The Knicks are also extremely efficient offensively at MSG, and these teams went 3-1 over this total in the regular season while averaging 223 PPG. The line movement on this total suggests sharp money prefers the over, and playoffs or not, this number is just too low for the situation and modern NBA.
MLB (1 Unit) KC Royals @ Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
My love for the Minnesota Twins made me sad to see them finally drop a game to Kansas City after 9 straight wins over the Royals. But as a bettor I think it was actually a good thing as it slightly holds down today’s numbers from getting overinflated. The Twins should get back on track with another easy win over this bad Royals squad.
It’s a massive pitching advantage for Minnesota with them sending Sonny Gray to the mound. The Royals are objectively the worst team in the league against right-handed pitching. Ranking dead last in every important metric is going to make it tough for them to get anything against Sonny Gray, who’s allowed 2 runs all season and has great metrics against the Royals lineup.
So the Twins might only need a couple runs to cover this run line, but I think they’ll do much better than that against Brady Singer. The Twins roster has a cumulative .327 average and 1.041 OPS against Singer, so they should produce with ease while Sonny holds down the Royals for another comfortable win.
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees @ Texas Rangers ML (+105; Odds via Caesars): 1:35 PM CT on MLB Network
I thought yesterday was an opportunity for this struggling Yankees team to get somewhat back on track, and they rewarded me with a goose egg offensively. So I’m looking for revenge after yesterday’s loss, but also starting to get convinced that this team is broken right now. They’re having real trouble hitting anything lately, and it won’t get easier against Martin Perez today.
The biggest struggle for New York has been against lefties like Perez, as they rank 27th in batting average and are bottom-third in MLB for most other key metrics. And the other side of this is Nestor Cortes being priced too high due to name brand recognition for both him and his team. But Cortes’ ERA has been on the rise, and the Rangers have been the far better team against lefty pitchers. So that gives them enough of an edge in my mind to expect a slight upset here today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1243-1092 ATS (+72.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.