Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Alabama First Half -13.5 @ Texas (-110): 11:00 AM CT on FOX
It’s pretty simple, there are two rock-solid trends converging in this game. Nick Saban beats up on his former assistants with regularity, and this is his first-ever game with Steve Sarkisian on the other sideline. Plus, Alabama beats up on teams early to cover the first half spread with regularity. When you put those two together, I see the Tide holding a comfortable lead at half in this one.
This game has been given considerable hype with two big-name programs squaring off, but it’s a pretty big mismatch on the field. Texas has a really weak front seven on defense, so Alabama will be able to run the ball at will and have Bryce Young sit back and pick the Longhorns apart. I don’t think this game lives up to the hype, as Alabama should roll early and often today. But Saban usually likes to coast in the second halves of these games, so back the Tide to do most of their damage before halftime.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Alabama 1st Half Team Total Over 23.5 (-110)
To build a solid first-half lead, you need to score, obviously. While they may not have 41 points at half like they did last week, the Tide can still light up this Longhorn defense that lost a lot of talent from last season. A balanced attack from a Bama team looking to make a statement should find their way over this number with relative ease.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Wake Forest/Vanderbilt Over 65 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on SEC Network
Sharps have been hammering the over in this game, obviously confident that Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman will be playing after a medical issue they’re calling an effort thrombosis. With him in the game, against a Vanderbilt defense that’s allowed 41 combined points to Hawaii and Elon, the Wake offense should feast.
The Demon Deacons were an excellent over bet last season as a prolific offense and sub-par defense combined for some epic shootouts, especially on the road where their past 5 games are 4-1 to the over. Their star quarterback returns with a deep receiving corps and the same up-tempo system, which still put up 44 points last week without him.
But Vandy has found some offense of their own so far this season behind dual-threat QB Mike Wright, and Wake hasn’t done much to improve a defense that allowed over 30 PPG last season. I’m not terribly concerned about light rain in the Nashville forecast, so I love the chances for this to be back and forth all game.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Miami Hurricanes 1st Half Team Total Over 20.5 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on ACC Network
What Miami did to Bethune-Cookman last week in hanging 70 points – 42 of which came before halftime – was eye-popping even against a very overmatched defense. But this is a team looking to make its presence known both in the ACC and nationally, which means more points are coming. They also have a very highly-rated quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke, which means there will be some element of padding stats to benefit him.
Those angles should all combine into another offensive showcase from the Hurricanes in this game. Southern Miss simply does not have the defensive talent to slow a balanced ‘Canes offense that should come roaring out of the gates. This Miami squad also has an excellent return team that will set up short fields or even score themselves. There’s a massive road trip to Texas A&M on deck for Miami as well, meaning they should do big damage early today so they can coast late.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Tennessee/Pittsburgh Over 64.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
If you’re Pittsburgh getting ready for this game, you should be very concerned about last week’s performance. Specifically that they gave up 31 points to a West Virginia team not known for offense in a rivalry game known for tough defense and running the ball.
It should be really scary then to see this Tennessee offense roll into town. The Volunteers put up 59 points last week, and 45 of those were on the board early in the 3rd quarter when they pulled their QB and other starters. Pitt has the ultimate boom-or-bust defense that takes a lot of chances, so the talent, speed, and aggressiveness of Tennessee’s offense is a bad matchup for them.
But a balanced Panthers offense should put plenty of their own points on the board. Defense is not Tennessee’s focus, and the Vols missed a lot of tackles last week against low-level competition. These teams combined for 75 points last season in a game played before Hendon Hooker took over at QB for Tennessee, sparking this elite offense. This should be another shootout in near-perfect fall conditions.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Arizona St./Oklahoma St. Over 57.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2
We talked on my podcast this week about how Oklahoma State was a good bet when the spread was 11 points. But it has since crept up a few points, and now I’m far more comfortable with the over in this game.
That number has also risen throughout the week, undoubtedly in response to how the Cowboys looked last week. Mike Gundy truly is back to his traditional ways with a high-octane offense and aggressive passing attack. But the defense showed the flaws I expected too, missing a lot of tackles and allowing 44 points to a non-power conference opponent.
Arizona State is still something of a mystery with all the negativity surrounding Herm Edwards and the program as a whole. But they showed a competent offense last week that can exploit the OSU defense and certainly have big play potential with QB Emory Jones and star RB Xazavian Valladay. They should be able to keep pace at least somewhat with the insane tempo from the Cowboys and get this game over a total I expected to be in the sixties.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Mississippi St./Arizona Over 57.5 (-110): 10:00 PM CT on FS1
Things tend to get weird late at night in the PAC12, especially down in Tucson. I’m fascinated by this game because it’s difficult to know if either of these teams is for real after excellent showings last week. One thing I know for sure is there are talented and electric quarterbacks on both offenses, which should turn this game into a high-scoring affair.
Mississippi State and Will Rogers, with coach Mike Leach at the helm, have all the offensive potential in the world. It was on full display last week en route to 49 points in a disjointed weather-delayed game. While Arizona’s defense looked better last week than they have in years, an up-tempo offense with SEC talent will be tough to handle.
The massive surprise with Arizona though was the offense erupting for 38 points last week after being 124th in scoring last season. Transfer portal to the rescue for the Wildcats, as big-play quarterback Jayden de Laura and standout receiver Jacob Cowing were unstoppable in their first games with the program. The Miss State defense loves to take chances, so there should be big plays galore that get this late-night game over the total.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Iowa State/Iowa Under 40.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on BTN
My Iowa State roots compel me to watch this game, but if you’re looking for offense I’d suggest averting your eyes. Iowa never had much offense last season, leaning on their excellent defense to win the Big Ten West division. Well, the offense has lost talent while the defense is still elite, illustrated by last week’s 7-3 near disaster against South Dakota State.
Don’t make too much of Iowa State hanging 42 on overmatched SE Missouri State last week, as this offense is needing to rebuild from last year’s graduations. Star receiver Xavier Hutchinson is the lone big-play threat, and he should be neutralized by an exceptional Iowa secondary. This rivalry has produced some incredibly low totals over the years, and this one should be no exception as I’d be surprised to see either team approach 20 points.
Tiny Nick is 847-712 ATS (+77 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.