Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics/Atlanta Hawks Over 232 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on TNT
I have to give a lot of credit to the Hawks for figuring out how to bounce back from pretty ugly offensive performances in the first two games of this series. They’ve averaged 123.3 points in the three games since, and if that can continue it will be a big driver of getting this game over the total. It helps that they’re at home where their offensive efficiency was far better this season, and the past three times Boston has visited State Farm Arena the games have averaged 253.7 points. Atlanta’s defense will still have no answers for the Celtic attack, so this looks to be another shootout.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Trae Young Over 27.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Trae Young specifically has been able to bounce back from frustrating games to start the series, and they’ll need another massive game from him here. Boston’s perimeter length just hasn’t been as effective against Ice Trae, whose confidence you can see rising in real time. This number is oddly right on his season average in home games, but with outings of 32, 35, and 38 points the past three games, I’m expecting Young to turn in another big performance and cash the over.
MLB (1 Unit) KC Royals @ Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Twins opened the season by beating Zack Greinke by two runs, swept that series on the run line, and I believe they should again tonight. The home/road splits that made Greinke so predictable last season are already showing up again, with him posting a 6.30 ERA and .302 on-base average allowed in two road starts. And Target Field was not friendly to him last season, going 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA and .333 on-base average allowed, losing each game by the run line.
If Greinke’s road struggles are going to continue, then Kansas City is in trouble here as I wouldn’t expect the Royals to give much run support. They rank 28th in average against right-handed pitching, as well as dead last in runs scored, weighted on-base average, and weighted runs created. Right-hander Tyler Mahle has great career numbers against the KC lineup, and just needs some run support for his season to look better. I think the Twins will give that support here as they continue their dominance of a bad Royals team.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1235-1090 ATS (+68.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.