Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Nebraska +1.5 @ Penn St (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:30 PM CT on BTN

I had high hopes for this Penn State squad after some great early season performances including a win over Purdue. But the wheels have fallen off and now the Nittany Lions are losing to everyone, and look like they’re ready for the season to be over.

Their offense has gotten too one-dimensional, overly reliant on running effective ball screens and getting to the free throw line. That won’t work today against an excellent Nebraska defense that is elite at defending ball screens and guards without fouling. The Huskers are hot, having won 5 of 6 to revive their tournament hopes, and I think they get the road win here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Northern Iowa/Belmont Over 154 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+

If this turns into the three-point contest I’m expecting, then neither defense has much hope of stopping the opposing team. It’s always a three-point contest when Belmont is involved, as the Bruins play at one of the fastest tempos in the country and get the 7th-highest percentage of their points via the three.

They don’t miss often either as they’re 9th in three-point percentage, but neither do their opponents as Belmont ranks 328th in three-point percentage defense. Northern Iowa is fairly similar with the 24th-best three-point percentage while sitting 289th in opponent three-point shooting. The Panthers are an excellent shooting team overall, and Belmont speeding them up while playing minimal defense is a great way to reach metric site projections of high 150’s tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) St Thomas/South Dakota Over 174.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

Two hundred and twenty-three. With no overtime. That’s what these teams did last time they met, hitting the over on a moderate total for the NBA much less college. That game stands as the crown jewel of Summit League insanity this season, and I think we see another wild one tonight.

There’s just no defense to be found here, as South Dakota is 345th and St Thomas 266th in adjusted defensive efficiency. And once again we should expect both teams to fly up and down the floor, with South Dakota driving pace behind the 2nd-fastest adjusted tempo in the country. The Bobcats are even faster and more aggressive on their home court, and we saw what speeding up an elite shooting team like St Thomas does to scoring.

It’s true that a lot of that first meeting was predicated on free-throw production, but that’s to be expected with these teams playing at breakneck speed and having a tendency to foul at high rates. This is one of the highest totals on the season, yet nothing but over money has come in. That suggests sharps agree with the metrics sites that see this getting to 180 or above, which would still be a 20% drop in production from the first meeting.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) DePaul First Half Team Total Over 30.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on FS1

February has been a crazy month for St John’s so far, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re worn out from the gauntlet they’ve gone through. Five straight extremely tight and hard-fought games with a decent amount of travel mixed in probably has the Red Storm a little weary, and this could be a significant let-down spot for them. Nobody takes DePaul seriously, as they’re arguably the worst team in the Big East, but a sneaky matchup advantage should see them score effectively tonight.

While the St John’s defense is elite, the weakness is against the three which explains their loss to Villanova, who put up 34 in the first half. All DePaul wants to do is launch three’s, and they shoot them at a fairly solid rate at home. The Blue Demons are also a strong first half team at home, averaging 36.4 points per game, plus they scored 29 in the first meeting at St John’s. Asking for 2 more points with home court advantage against a worn-out visitor isn’t much in my book, so I’ll be on this isolated total here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +71.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.