Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6-Point Teaser (-110): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
In honor of the NFL finally being back, I have to get a same-game teaser in for tonight’s game. These aren’t typically recommended, especially since it’s teasing the total, but I’m too excited and can’t help myself.
L.A. Rams +8.5
This is basically a fade-the-steam play, as summer betting action saw this line move through zero and flip Buffalo to the favorite. While I’d pick the Bills to win if you made me, having the Rams and these 8.5 points to cover several key numbers is too valuable to pass up. My sense is that a lot of the summer steam on this line was based on Matthew Stafford’s elbow and some questions at running back for Los Angeles. Those concerns have gotten less concerning in recent days with positive news. Since the NFL had the Super Bowl winner host the opening game, those teams are 10-4-3 ATS. So with an extra 6 points in my pocket, I’ll take the Rams in what should be a close game.
Over 46
These are two strong defenses with big-name players on both units, especially Buffalo who led the league in yards and points allowed last season. But the absence of Tre’Davious White for the Bills is concerning against Cooper Kupp. And in the NFL, offense is king, and the sum of these offenses is greater than the sum of the defenses. These teams can score on anyone, and Buffalo is relentless on offense as they showed this preseason. The league also loves points, and 7 of the past 11 opening games have been high-scoring affairs over this total. With the teased number buying some breathing room, I see this one having enough fireworks to get over.
NFL (0.25 Unit) Buffalo Bills First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
As I mentioned above, these teams can score in bunches, and I expect Buffalo to come out swinging in this one. They love getting out to fast starts, and new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is surely eager to make his mark.
Word out of Buffalo is Dorsey was the real mastermind that former OC and new New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll got credit for, so look for the Bills offense to punch the gas early. In the last 6 games of last season, including playoffs, Buffalo was 5-1 over this number, so they’re no stranger to getting it done.
It also wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Rams were a little flat to start this game, somewhat distracted by their Super Bowl ring ceremony. That should give Buffalo the opportunity to get a couple of touchdowns on the board before half in what I’m expecting to be a high-scoring game anyway.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 846-711 ATS (+78.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.