Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5: 12:00 PM CT on Netflix
The Chiefs are going to win by multiple scores? Gimme a break, they’ve done that 4 times in their past 22 games overall. They’re going to do it on the road against Mike Tomlin? Please, he’s the king of catching points, especially at home where he’s 21-6-3 ATS as an underdog. It’s going to happen on Christmas in a standalone game? Yeah right, Roger Goodell would never allow it. The Steelers certainly aren’t playing at the level they were earlier this year, but catching a full possession at home in this spot is too good to pass up.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans +11.5: 3:30 PM CT on Netflix
It’s a lot of the same philosophy here as above, with another big home underdog that I think can stay inside this adjusted number. The Ravens might be a juggernaut at times, and certainly looked that way in their two games after the bye so far, but a road game on this short of rest is concerning. Baltimore tends to struggle after Steelers Week, and this unique scheduling spot isn’t doing them any favors. The Texans are in trouble without Tank Dell, but this defense is still legit and will probably give Derrick Henry the most trouble he’s had this season. With the Baltimore secondary still a major liability, the back door will stay open for CJ Stroud – who’s excellent as an underdog – to keep this within an advantageous number.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Pat Friermuth Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – George Pickens Longest Reception Over 25.5 Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Xavier Worthy Over 59.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.25 Unit – Nico Collins Anytime TD (+130)
0.25 Unit – Dalton Schultz Anytime TD (+320)
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Charleston/Charlotte Over 144.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 3:00 PM CT on ESPNU
This is a big clash of styles as Charleston wants to get out and run while Charlotte wants to slow the game down. But I was surprised to see this total significantly below the metrics site projections that come in a few points higher, and I think there’s a path to getting over the number here.
That path to points runs through the paint today, as it will be important for Charleston to take advantage of a poor Charlotte interior defense. The 49ers are 307th in two-point percentage defense, and allow the 10th-highest split of points to be scored inside the arc. The old Charleston would prefer to still jack up three’s, but new coach Chris Mack has the Cougars much more balanced offensively and they should take advantage of the easy looks.
And Charlotte should get some easy buckets as well with Charleston ranked 263rd in two-point defense, especially with the 49ers so anemic from deep. Charlotte should also continue to get to the line where they rank 1st in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe, so I see a lot of easy points piling up in this one.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Oregon St +4.5 vs Nebraska (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
You cannot kill Oregon State. Many teams have tried, most have failed, and the two losses the Beavers did take this season both came by three points to very good opponents. The big key for them is how good they’ve been in second halves, ranked 13th nationally in average second half margin, so they’re either pulling away from teams or closing the gap. I think they’ll be in a tight one here against a Nebraska team that is good, but not the kind to beat a team like the Beavers by a significant margin on a neutral floor.
This looks like a defensive battle with the Huskers ranked 16th and OSU 41st in adjusted defensive efficiency, or in other words the kind of game where you’d want to take more than a possession’s worth of points. Nebraska has some perimeter defense issues though, allowing opponents the 3rd-highest split of points to come from beyond the arc. So a Beavers team that’s 48th in three-point percentage should have opportunities to make up a deficit if needed and rely on their late-game execution to keep this close or win it outright.
Degenerates
NBA Minnesota Timberwolves/Dallas Mavericks Under 220.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:30 PM CT on ABC
Most of the value in this number has been sucked out by early sharp money hammering the under, dropping it a full 8 points. But I’m still taking a shot on a low-scoring game here based on the inconsistency of the Dallas offense, and the horror show that the Wolves offense has been lately. Somehow the Mavericks are a top-5 offense, but they tend to alternate great outings with awful ones, and it looks like Santa might be giving them a lump of coal today.
But Minnesota has been on the naughty list for weeks, averaging just 104.0 PPG the past 10 games, which would be good for dead last in the NBA this season. The Wolves have now dropped to 24th in offensive rating, and I just don’t see them winning games on that end of the floor, so this should be a defensive battle that stays under the total.
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Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.