Locks

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves/Denver Nuggets Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings): 9:30 PM CT on TNT

Like their Friday play-in game, I’m staying away from the side or total here and attacking the prop market instead. I think a lot of the same principles apply here: shortened rotation and lots of injuries for the Wolves, plus playoff stakes will raise usage for the key players.

I also think there are a lot of individual matchups that both teams will struggle to contain, meaning strong offensive and all-around performances. Mostly that’s Karl-Anthony Towns not having anyone to truly lock him down, and the same for Michael Porter, Jr, who had three excellent games against Minnesota this year.

1 Unit: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 23.5 Points (-110)

0.5 Unit: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 35.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)

1 Unit: Mike Conley Over 14.5 Points (-110)

0.75 Unit: Michael Porter Jr Over 17.5 Points (-110)

0.5 Unit: Michael Porter Jr Over 2.5 Made Three’s (-125)

NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies -2 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ABC

It really feels like the Lakers will take this series, but I don’t have much confidence in them very early on. We see this often with LeBron James’ teams that have to travel for Game 1 of a playoff series, with those teams going 3-14 straight up as there’s a feeling-out process. With a rookie head coach and supporting cast with minimal playoff experience, I think that gives Memphis a considerable edge early today.

That edge should allow the Grizzlies to continue what they’ve typically done in this situation, which is dominate in the first half. Memphis is 28-12-1 ATS in the first half at home this season, and have the best average first-half margin of plus-7.8 points at home. They should have FedEx Forum rocking for this one, and I expect the Grizz to take a decent lead into halftime.

Bonus Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit: Desmond Bane Over 32.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)

0.75 Unit: Dennis Schroder Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)

NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks -3 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on TNT

I’m still in shock from Miami’s miraculous close to their Friday game, and looking to fade them here. I think it starts early and extends throughout the game against a Bucks team with excellent results in this situation. Milwaukee is the highest-scoring first quarter team in the league both overall and at home. That should help them jump out early against a Heat team that often struggles offensively and scores the second-fewest points in road first quarters.

Milwaukee also showed in the regular season series why they’ll jump on the Heat right away today. The Bucks had reserve lineups play both games in South Beach, but were at full strength for both home games, jumping out to leads of 8 and 10 points after a quarter. The Bucks are ready and waiting here, so expect them to be clicking early today.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Bucks -9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

I think that hot start carries the Bucks through the rest of this game against a Heat squad that’s the NBA’s lowest-scoring team. I just don’t see Miami being able to rely on a defense that isn’t what it used to be, especially against uniquely-equipped Bucks. There’s a reason Miami has the league’s 5th-worst ATS record on the road, and it should result in a comfortable Milwaukee win today.

Bonus Prop Bet (0.75 Unit): Grayson Allen Over 12.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-120)

Grayson Allen doesn’t get the usage rate you’d expect out of a guy who starts a lot of games for the Bucks, but that should change here. In expecting a bit of a blowout, I’m seeing more minutes and opportunity for the Milwaukee guard. It helps that he went over this number in all three appearances against Miami this season, averaging 21.7 on this prop, and I see it again today.

NBA LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on TNT

Without Paul George here, the Clippers are obviously going to lean on Kawhi Leonard, so I hope all that load management has him ready today. They’ll have to run everything through him offensively, as well as asking him to do his share on the glass.

They’ll also need Nicolas Batum to play a more integral role today, which means starter minutes in a shortened rotation for a player who usually comes off the bench. All he does offensively is spot up for three’s, and he’s shooting 42% from deep since the All-Star break. The higher workload should see him pad all stat categories.

0.5 Unit: Kawhi Leonard Over 38.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)

0.75 Unit: Nicolas Batum Over 10.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)

0.5 Unit: Nicolas Batum Over 1.5 Made Three’s (-110)

MLB (0.75 Unit) Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings (-105; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI

This is all about Dylan Cease and how strong he’s been to start this season, and overall at home. The Chicago righty has earned 3 total runs this season, and only 2 of those were in the F5 of his starts. He’s seen some potent lineups in those games as well, so a deep Orioles roster isn’t going to be anything different for him. Those Orioles have also struggled against Cease, owning just a .200 cumulative batting average and .605 OPS.

Last season Cease saw Baltimore twice, only allowing a .163 on-base average and striking out 17 Orioles in 12 innings of work. This series has seen the Orioles struggle against far less dangerous White Sox starters, and they’ve trailed after 5 innings in both games, only doing damage in later innings. With Cease rolling the way he is, plus a rookie starting for Baltimore who has struggled, this game should see more of the same.

MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Mets -1.5 @ Oakland A’s (+105; Odds via Caesars): 3:07 PM CT on NBCS-CA

The Mets are bumping back Max Scherzer and replacing him today with Jose Butto for his second big league start, but I like the Mets to win easily even without Mad Max. It’s just impossible to have any respect for the “Triple-A’s” at this point, as every lineup card has names I’ve never heard of. While Butto is certainly not a pitcher anyone should be afraid of, he is a right-hander which Oakland struggles mightily with.

Meanwhile, the Mets finally get to see a left-handed starter in this series which should help their inconsistent offense. New York is far better against lefties from a simple batting average perspective, and rank top-10 in all the more advanced power metrics. They should be able to get to JP Sears in this one, allow their solid bullpen to back up their spot starter, and pull away for a multi-run win today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1211-1057 ATS (+75.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.