Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Baltimore Ravens +3.5 @ LA Chargers: 7:15 PM CT on ABC

Yes, I know this is not how you bet teasers, what are you, a cop? I’m losing value going through zero, but sometimes you have to break rules to get good numbers. I actually like the Ravens to win this game in what’s likely to be a tight one, so getting the insurance of more than a field goal is attractive to me. Lamar Jackson in regular season night games is 19-5 straight up, which is the best of any quarterback all time.

And he’s just tough to prepare for in your first meeting with him, which is what Jim Harbaugh is up against tonight, as coaches who’ve never faced Jackson are 7-36 straight up against him. So I think the Ravens bounce back after a game in Pittsburgh where they always struggle, but even if LA improbably wins on a walk-off field goal, I’m good here.

Baltimore Ravens/LA Chargers Over 44.5

Monday Night Football has for once offered some compelling games this season, and points have come with them. Monday night games are 10-4 to the over this season, going over the total by an average 5.8 point margin, and I think we see another shootout here. Last week notwithstanding where Pittsburgh did their usual thing of making Lamar look human, Baltimore games are simply over machines at 9-2 this season.

While the Chargers have one of the best under records, they finally got into a shootout last week when a high level quarterback came to town. I think their defense continues to get exposed as being built up on weak opponents, but their offense should have no trouble here either. They’re well-suited to attack Baltimore’s pass-funnel defense, and that pass defense ranks 30th in EPA per play. Being able to move this total down below a few key numbers makes me much more comfortable than a total in the 50’s, so I’m confident this game gets over the adjusted number.

Bonus MNF Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Justin Herbert Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Justin Herbert Over 21.5 Completions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Lamar Jackson Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Will Dissly Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Zay Flowers Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Zay Flowers Alt Over 5.5 Receptions (+130)

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Auburn/Iowa State Over 146.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

I’m scared as a Cyclones fan here because Auburn looks really, really good. The Tigers made a big statement by hanging 74 points in essentially a true road game at Houston, who is the gold standard of college basketball defenses. Iowa State has a good one themselves, but I see a game where the Clones need to keep up.

I think they can since they probably have the best offense in many years, and are playing at a faster pace than I’ve ever seen from them. But with the Tigers boasting the country’s second-best offense by adjusted efficiency, plus the top two-point percentage and top effective field goal rate, there will be buckets in this game. With Maui Invitational games typically being higher-scoring, I’ll take a shot here that these excellent squads can score enough on each other to reach this total.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.