Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Steelers/Cleveland Browns Under 36.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
It’s all about the weather here, as Cleveland is expected to see a rain/snow mix at gametime with significant winds as well. That is the custom-made under formula, especially in Cleveland where it always seems to be worse on the field than what the weather report can tell you. I also think we see a bounce back from the Browns defense tonight after they were gashed by Taysom Hill, which is a reasonable expectation given how much better they typically play at home.
And I see this as a tough situational spot for Pittsburgh, having to travel to a division rival on a short week after a tough game against another division rival, so the Steelers seem likely to be sluggish here. It’s a low number, but when Vegas goes low I go lower, as totals of 37 or less are 33-15-1 to the under since 2020.
Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.25 Unit – Jameis Winston Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.25 Unit – Jameis Winston Longest Completion Under 34.5 Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Russell Wilson Longest Completion Under 34.5 Yards (-110)
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Baylor -2.5 vs St John’s (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN
I think this neutral site game in the Bahamas gives Baylor an advantage, as the Bears have already played a couple games away from home while St John’s hasn’t left New York until now. Yes, Baylor got absolutely boat raced in Gonzaga, but they’ve improved dramatically since that game which simply snowballed on them.
I think Baylor leverages a big advantage on the boards in this game, as their length and aggressiveness inside should help them clean the glass. The Bears are also the better three-point shooting team, and their zone should prevent the Red Storm from keeping pace in that department. The talent edge belongs to Baylor here and the market is recognizing it, so I’ll lay the short number with them tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Eastern Washington/Washington St Over 158 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN+
Both of these teams tend to see their games get wild, and I think another is coming here. Both teams fly up and down the court at fast tempos, and neither have been playing particularly good defense so far this season. That’s especially true with Eastern Washington, who checks in at 319th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Eagles are allowing teams to get whatever they want, with an opponent effective field goal rate that’s 341st in the country along with the 6th-worst three-point percentage defense. So Wazzu should score at will both inside and out here, but with their own defensive issues I see them allowing a track meet to unfold. That should be the recipe needed to get over this high total that metrics sites project is a little too low.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Memphis/San Francisco Over 154 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPNU
San Francisco has played mostly strong defense this season, but they’re about to get a big dose of reality tonight. Memphis brings an up-tempo style and an elite offense that leads the country in three-point shooting, so this is the toughest test for San Fran yet. But the Dons have been very good offensively as well, scoring in the 80’s every game and having a lot of success getting buckets inside.
They’ll need it to keep up with the Tigers here, but a tight spread says this game should go back and forth all night. Notably, San Francisco’s other games against functional offenses resulted in 164 and 157 points, so I think their defense gets strained here in a game that could fly over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +70.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.