Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Green Bay Packers PK @ Chicago Bears: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
I’d much rather be in the position Green Bay occupies this week, coming off the bye with a great health report and ready to extend their dominance over this opponent. Compare that to Chicago who just fired their offensive coordinator, probably has a lame-duck head coach, and is dealing with calls inside the locker room for Caleb Williams to be benched. I think the season has fallen apart for the Bears, and that makes them likely to continue losing to the Packers who have won 10 straight in this rivalry, so I’ll back the Pack to get another today.
Kansas City Chiefs +8.5 @ Buffalo Bills: 3:25 PM CT on CBS
In easily the game of the week, I’ll be taking the team that has been the bully for this budding rivalry in every key meeting. I don’t like taking 2.5 on the regular spread with Kansas City because that number does nothing for me, but this is almost guaranteed to be a one-possession game either way. I can’t make the point enough that Patrick Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog, so padding that with an extra 6 points gives me a lot of confidence.
Josh Allen typically comes through as a short home favorite, going 7-3 SU and ATS, but two of those losses were to KC who is riding a lucky streak like nothing I’ve seen before. I just don’t see how a lopsided game is possible here, so getting the Chiefs to catch a sizable number here is great value in my opinion.
NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers +10: 12:00 PM CT on CBS
In the other game of the week, I’m also anticipating a one-possession game so getting the home team to double digits here is very comforting. These teams just never play lopsided games against each other, as 15 of the past 18 meetings have had a final margin of a touchdown or less.
The underdog is 15-2-1 ATS over that stretch, just remarkable success that adding an extra 7 points to feels like cheating. Mike Tomlin as an underdog against the Ravens is 12-2-2 ATS, so the Steelers catching double digits is almost too good to be true.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions -6.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Plenty of sharp bettors out there are laying the full-game number with Detroit today, which is nearly unheard of at a two-touchdown margin. So that makes me pretty confident that the Lions are a solid bet to cover at one less touchdown against this truly awful opponent. The Jaguars with Mac Jones again are in serious trouble here, especially with the Lions simply out for blood this season.
This feels like a game where Detroit will cover without really trying, but I believe they will try to make another statement after last week’s near-debacle. After not covering as a Lion, Jared Goff is 9-2 ATS the following week when listed as a favorite, so this should be a runaway game that I’m glad to knock 7 points off of.
Cincinnati Bengals/LA Chargers Over 41: 7:20 PM CT on NBC
If anyone tells you about the Chargers and their top-rated defense in the league, do not take them seriously. When 7 of your 9 games have come against Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston, and Will Levis, you’re going to have the appearance of a good defense.
But now LA has to face the guy having arguably the best quarterback season in the league as Joe Burrow comes to town, and he gets Tee Higgins back too. The Bengals are such an excellent over partner with that elite offense and terrible defense that they’ll change how the Chargers play football out of necessity. This total jumped up after a sharp group released a pick on the over this week, so knocking it back down to this very moderate number gives me a lot of confidence.
NFL (1 Unit) Pittsburgh Steelers Team Total Over 22.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
It’s a new era of Steelers versus Ravens, so Pittsburgh keeping this meeting close is likely going to come with plenty of points from them. It’s weird, but you simply can’t take the under in a Ravens game anymore as this defense is really struggling. Baltimore is just 26th in overall EPA per play on defense, including 31st against the pass. Give credit to Pittsburgh and Russell Wilson, they have it rolling offensively and should be able to exploit that bad defense, so look for them to get over this advantageous team total.
NFL (1 Unit) Cleveland Browns -1.5 @ New Orleans Saints (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
We’re now back to the lookahead line with the Browns laying a short number, and it’s the right correction from the Saints somehow being favored earlier in the week. New Orleans got a charitable bump in their market valuation following their new-coach bounce in a win over Atlanta, but that game was not as good for them as it looked.
The Saints got crushed in the box score and benefited from several missed field goals last week, and they’re still the Saints. This team cannot defend anything, particularly on the ground where they’re 30th in EPA per rush. The Browns coming in off the bye where they got their offensive line much healthier, and got another week for Nick Chubb to prepare, should cut right through that defense. It’s also a revenge game for Jameis Winston, so I agree with the line move through zero and like Cleveland to get this win.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals Team Total Over 23.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
See above where I listed off the quarterbacks that the Chargers have been lucky enough to face this season. I think the Bengals are live in this game as short dogs, with them essentially eliminated from any playoff conversation with a loss. So I expect them to bring their A game which usually means a strong night by the offense, especially with Tee Higgins back in the lineup. I really see a shock to LA’s system in this game from the highest-graded offense they’ve seen by far, so look for the Bengals to clear this number tonight.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.25 Unit – Josh Jacobs Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Josh Jacobs Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Tucker Kraft Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Russell Wilson Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.25 Unit – Russell Wilson Over 19.5 Completions (-110)
0.25 Unit – George Pickens Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Sam Darnold Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110)
0.25 Unit – Calvin Ridley Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jameis Winston Over 244.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Cedric Tillman Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Alvin Kamara Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Nick Chubb Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Devon Achane Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jonathan Taylor Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Jonathan Taylor Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Breece Hall Over 100.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Audric Estime Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Deebo Samuel Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+120)
0.5 Unit – Jauan Jennings Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+220)
0.25 Unit – Tee Higgins Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Joe Burrow Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +72.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.