Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Minnesota Vikings -1 @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

This is the exact kind of game Minnesota’s strategy is perfect for. The Vikings get to face both a bad defense and a backup quarterback here, and it should spell a blowout with how they approach games on both sides of the ball. We’ve seen all season how they jump out to early leads thanks to their scripted plays, and that shouldn’t be too difficult against the defense ranked 32nd in overall EPA/play.

Once they have that lead, Brian Flores will mercilessly blitz backup QB Mac Jones who should wilt under the pressure. So it’s a custom-made opportunity for the Vikings to build on last week’s bounce back, but I’ll just ask them to win in case the line movement in this game got a little overblown.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 @ Dallas Cowboys: 3:25 PM CT on CBS

As one of the bigger Cowboys fans out there, I can say with near certainty that they are not winning this game. The vibes are so low at the moment that I don’t know how they’d even keep it close, but like the backup quarterback situation above, I’ll just ask Philadelphia to win this in case the line movement has been excessive.

True, Cooper Rush has a good record in his time stepping in for Dak in the past, but that was a much different Dallas team around him. Back then they had an elite offensive line, a great running game, and a much better defense, all of which are non-factors this season. The Eagles will control this game from start to finish with Saquon Barkley running wild, a fact I resigned myself to the moment I saw Dak grab for his hamstring.

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via DraftKings)

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +13.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

The 49ers are set to welcome Christian McCaffrey back to the lineup today, so there’s plenty of excitement about that team being back as a fearsome contender. Let’s calm down on that a little bit, especially on the road against a team that never quits. That’s why I think this teased line is a great play, because the Bucs fight to the end and have an uncanny ability to sneak in the back door. Tampa is 8-1 on a 7-point teaser this season, with the inexplicable Week 3 loss to Denver the lone outlier. I think they keep it close again with San Fran’s defensive injury problems allowing the back door to stay wide open on this big number.

San Francisco 49ers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 43.5

Tampa’s recent games have all followed the same script, with them unable to stop anything while Baker Mayfield rallies them to close results. That has caused some sky-high point totals, and one should be coming again here with the 49ers about as healthy as they’re going to get on offense. I think both teams trade shots all game, but I’d rather need to get over this adjusted total that these squads are a combined 14-3 over this season.

Tennessee Titans @ LA Chargers -0.5: 3:05 PM CT on FOX

I think this shapes up as an excellent teaser leg for the Chargers since Justin Herbert is a perfect 6-0 straight up in his career as a home favorite of 7-plus points. The LA offense will have a tougher time against an excellent Titans defense, but that’s all Tennessee has going for them. They’re handing the keys back to Will Levis today, and that can’t possibly spell success against a Chargers defense that’s equally elite, especially against bad quarterbacks. My sense is that the Titans don’t really want to win this game as they jockey for draft position, so getting the Chargers at a number where they just have to win is great value.

NFL (1 Unit) Tennessee Titans/LA Chargers Under 39.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on FOX

Every Chargers game feels like a free under, and it’s been that way for a while with Justin Herbert 17-2 to the under his past 19 starts. You won’t find any other teams this season with a better record to the under or lower plus/minus to the total. And with this total actually ticking up half a point, Chargers games have gone 8-0 under this particular number.

They really struggle to score, and Jim Harbaugh always prefers to keep it on the ground and rely on the defense, so that’s a great recipe for unders. The bottom line here is these are two teams who rank in the bottom four in offensive success rate, but top three in defensive success rate, so I just don’t see where the points are coming from today.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Detroit Lions -3.5 @ Houston Texans (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

Part of this feels too easy, and a lot of smart money seems to be balancing this line by backing Houston with the hook here. But how are they just ignoring the generational ATS run that Detroit is on? The Lions are now 40-15 ATS their past 55 games overall, and Jared Goff is 31-10 ATS indoors the past 4 seasons. What’s more, Goff is now 16-3 ATS in his past 19 road games, including 8-1 as a road favorite. I can’t ignore that, even with Houston in a hyped home spot with Nico Collins returning, so yeah I’m blindly betting the Lions until further notice.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Jonathan Taylor Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – DeAndre Swift Over 93.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Justin Jefferson Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Najee Harris Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Austin Ekeler Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Bijan Robinson Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Alvin Kamara Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Alvin Kamara Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)

1 Unit – George Kittle Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Cade Otton Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – James Conner Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 112.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Devonta Smith Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Devonta Smith Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jake Ferguson Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Joe Mixon Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Nico Collins Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – AmonRa St Brown Over 6.5 Receptions (+115)

0.25 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +71.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.