Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 4 (+100): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Sun

The Boston Red Sox haven’t won in Tampa since April 22nd in the first meeting this season. That string of 8 straight Rays victories has also seen them put up fairly decent offensive numbers against the patchwork Boston rotation. Tampa has averaged 5.3 runs per game in those home wins, along with 5.4 per game against the Sox this season as a whole. I see more coming today, and this number presents a good opportunity.

The low full-game total is forcing Tampa’s isolated number down, and the Rays just reaching their average against Boston nets an even-money return with this juice. I say they get there against Nick Pivetta, who has been blown up in his two appearances against the Rays this season. Those starts saw him earn 5 and 7 runs, along with allowing a .364 on-base average. Pivetta is also dealing with some injury trouble, so if he doesn’t go deep in this game, the ugly Boston bullpen should serve up more runs. While I’m not a huge fan of Tampa’s offense, this is just too good of an opportunity to pass up.

MLB (0.6 Unit) Cleveland Guardians Team Total Under 4.5 (-120): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC

I’m honestly surprised to see the Guardians favored in this game and would stay away from picking a winner. Cleveland’s injury-replacement starter will at least get to face a lot of Triple-A bats from the Royals, but it’s their offense that I see having trouble today. That’s because Zack Greinke is a world-beater in Kauffman Stadium, posting a 1.98 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home.

Greinke has also been dominant against Cleveland this season, not coincidentally because he’s faced them both times at home. He has just a 0.84 ERA and .205 on-base average allowed against the Guardians in those starts, both Royals victories where Cleveland only got one run. The Guardians haven’t exactly been hot at the plate lately either, averaging just 2.4 runs per game in the past 15 games. I just don’t see anything changing in those areas today, so look for this number at 4.5 and pay the extra juice.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 845-710 ATS (+78.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.