Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
LA Chargers @ Cleveland Browns +8.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS
The Browns were rejuvenated last week, finally free from the awfulness of Deshaun Watson, and somehow looking better in all phases. I think they continue that today and wouldn’t be surprised to see them win another straight up as a home underdog. But getting this number through a full possession is too good to pass up, especially with Jameis Winston’s gunslinger ability to get in the back door if necessary. LA’s inability to put points on the board though, even against bad defenses, makes me think this will be competitive the entire game, and I’ll definitely take this many points with the home dog.
Dallas Cowboys/Atlanta Falcons Over 45: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Like I said on my podcast, I’ve finally lost all patience with my Cowboys this season, particularly this defense that can’t stop a nosebleed. There’s no help coming yet either as Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland are set to miss another game, so an excellent Atlanta offense probably won’t be shy about running up the score. The Falcons really struggle to get any pressure on the quarterback though, ranked 30th in pass rush win rate. Giving that much time to Dak and this offense will allow them to put up points in bunches, and get this game over the adjusted total.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles -0.5: 3:05 PM CT on CBS
The talent level of the Eagles is too high for their struggles to continue, and they showed it in easily handling three bad teams in a row. They get a fourth in a row today, with a bad and badly beat up Jaguars team coming to town. Jacksonville has significant cluster injuries at receiver, so this inconsistent offense is likely to struggle against a rejuvenated Philly secondary. With the Jags not able to stop anything either, an Eagles offense that’s finding its stride should run wild and get them a win, which is all that’s needed to close this teaser.
NFL (1 Unit) New Orleans Saints First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
I’ll keep pointing out this atrocious Panthers defense in first halves, especially against functional offenses. New Orleans returns to functional level today with Derek Carr returning, and I think he’s able to light up the Panthers again. Let’s not forget what the Saints did to Carolina in Week 1, hanging 30 points in the first half.
That definitely skewed the average for Carolina’s defense, but they’re still allowing 21.9 PPG before half this season. It also skewed the average for New Orleans, but they’re still putting up 15.5 first half points and have spent the past few weeks with Spencer Rattler at the helm. The upgrade to Carr is significant, and I see the Saints returning to taking plenty of downfield shots and running it up on Carolina early.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings -0.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:15 PM CT on NBC
The quarterback change for Indianapolis definitely upgrades them on offense, but I’m still rolling with maybe the most consistent trend in the league right now. The Vikings have won every opening quarter in their games this season thanks to a league-leading 10.3 first quarter points per game, plus the second-fewest points allowed. The scripted plays for Minnesota are working on an elite level right now, and should continue to against a Colts defense that has a lot of holes. A fired-up crowd for Sunday Night Football should help lead the Vikings to another lead after 15 minutes of play.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Indianapolis Colts/Minnesota Vikings First Quarter Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Here’s where the upgrade Joe Flacco kicks in. The Colts are already a high-scoring team in opening quarters, ranking 4th in the league with 5.6 points on average. Combined with Minnesota’s early offense, there should be good early scoring opportunities to get the first quarter into double digits.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (-110)
0.5 Unit – Chris Olave Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Chris Olave Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)
0.25 Unit – Chris Olave Anytime TD (+135)
0.5 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 24.5 Pass Completions (-110)
0.75 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.75 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 7.5 Receptions (+110)
0.5 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (-110)
0.5 Unit – Bijan Robinson Over 102.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Devon Achane Over 92.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD (+165)
0.25 Unit – Keon Coleman Anytime TD (+160)
0.5 Unit – Malik Nabers Over 6.5 Receptions (+110)
0.5 Unit – Evan Engram Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 106.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (+110)
1 Unit – Josh Downs Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Aaron Jones Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Jonathan Taylor Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Joe Flacco Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (+125)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +85.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.