Locks.
MLB (1.3 Unit) Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins ML (-130; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Yeah, I’m just excited for the Twins home opener, so I’m backing them basically no matter what. The fan boy meter is dialed up to 11 on this one, but the market seems to agree with it. The Twins have been steamed up from a pick-em price to here, so smart money is not loving the defending champion Astros today.
I like that I’m getting Sonny Gray today who looked great in his first start, albeit against the pitiful Royals. It hasn’t been an impressive start to the season for Houston though, so Gray is not in a spot with big matchup disadvantages. And I’m also liking the Twins against Jose Urquidy who always struggles in April, so I think they open the home schedule with a bang.
MLB (1.3 Unit) Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians ML (-130; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports GL
This is another home favorite that’s catching steam, but probably not enough in my opinion so laying even this much juice still has value. I’ve been looking to fade Seattle this season since last year’s surprise run seemed to be built too much on luck. That’s proven out so far, especially against Cleveland who took 3 of 4 in Seattle to start the season.
And with all due respect to Shane Bieber, today’s starter Aaron Civale might be the best pitcher on this roster. He showed it in dominating the Mariners over 7 innings in that previous series, and he’s always been a far better pitcher at home. Seattle starter Logan Gilbert is also really impressive, so this should be a low-scoring game that the Guardians will have to grind out. But they’ve done that plenty of times already this season, and should again with finally being at home.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Oakland A’s @ Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
One thing I typically hate doing is laying the run line with a home favorite, as a late one-run lead can come back to bite you. But I have to make an exception with Tampa, who is feasting on one of the easiest opening schedules you can imagine. The Rays have covered the run line in all 6 games and are winning by an average of 5.2 runs per game.
You have to factor in the level of competition Tampa has faced, but it’s not like things get any tougher with Oakland in town. The A’s have already compiled a minus-3.1 average margin on the season, and now finally go on the road to face a truly dominant team. The pitching matchup is another true mismatch in favor of Tampa, so this should be another easy win as the Rays keep exploiting their soft schedule.
MLB (1 Unit) LA Dodgers Team Total Over 5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ESPN+
It’s sad to see, but it looks like Madison Bumgarner doesn’t have anything left. That seemed to be the case in his first start, when he allowed 5 runs in just 4 innings to this Dodgers team that rang up 10 runs in that game. Really concerning was his control, as MadBum issued 4 free passes that contributed to Dodger runs.
If Bumgarner and a Diamondbacks bullpen that’s already dead last in WAR have more struggles, then LA should cash in tonight. The Dodgers have already had their fair share of offensive eruptions this season, averaging 6.1 runs per game. This is a situation against poor pitching that should see them put up plenty of crooked numbers again.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1190-1033 ATS (+75.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.