Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Chicago Bulls/Milwaukee Bucks 1st Quarter Over 56 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
I’m always interested in first quarter overs with the Bucks, especially in Milwaukee where they lead the league in first-quarter scoring. Their high pace early in games is the driver, and consequently drags the opponent with them as the Bucks allow 29.3 points in first quarters at home. Chicago actually has an excellent first quarter defense, except for when they play the Bucks.
In three meetings this season, Milwaukee has hung 32, 33, and 34 points on the Bulls in the first quarter, with all of those first quarters getting over this total. The Bulls are also on no rest here, and fresh off allowing 36 first-quarter points to a Hawks team without Trae Young playing. The Bucks are also on no rest after a high-possessions game last night, so look for tired defenses and a fast pace to get this first quarter over a very discounted number.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/NO Pelicans 1st Half Under 111.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports NO
This is a much different number than yesterday when the Pelicans faced the high-scoring Kings, but it’s also a much different situation. With Memphis in town after all but wrapping up the 2-seed last night, I’m expecting the Grizzlies to be resting starters in this game. The market seems to expect that as well with New Orleans significant favorites and the total on its way down. I think the lower-scoring game that’s expected will start early as the Pelicans rely on strong defense in this critical game.
New Orleans has the 3rd-best scoring defense before halftime, and should be able to shut down Memphis reserves. The three meetings this season have seen an average of 113 first-half points with a mostly healthy Grizzlies roster playing. The key though is the second quarter, which is when bench players get the most time, and Memphis averaged only 23.7 points. That shows the Pelicans know how to shut down those reserves, and should again tonight.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Dallas Mavericks 1st Quarter Over 62 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
The Kings enter this game in a similar situation to the Grizzlies, as Sacramento just wrapped up the 3-seed last night. So they may also rest some players tonight, and be sure to keep an eye on the injury report in case key names show up as out for this one. But it may not actually matter with how Sacramento plays, the defensive issues for Dallas, and how these teams have played in previous meetings.
Putting Sacramento on no rest usually means points, as the Kings are 9-5 to the over with a plus-12.2 average margin to the total. And even reserves can score against Dallas, as the Mavericks have allowed 33.2 first-quarter points in the past 5 games. But Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic are expected to go tonight, giving a big boost to the Mavs offense. Both meetings this season came after Irving was traded to Dallas, and those games had first quarters of 66 and 70 points. I think we see more of the same in this one.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1190-1030 ATS (+76.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.