Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder/LA Clippers Under 232.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on NBATV

Despite some recent struggles, the Clippers have always been known as more of a defensive-oriented team. It’s why they’ve been the second-best under bet this season, and especially at home where they lead the league with a 27-9 record to the under. But the Thunder actually have a better opponent-adjusted defensive net rating on the year, making this look like another dead under game.

These strange doubleheaders in the NBA schedule can produce very different results, but it’s hard to ignore these teams combining for just 201 points on Tuesday. They’ve also combined to average just 210.3 PPG across their 3 meetings this season, going under this total each time. Add in that one of the best scorers in the game, Paul George, will be out for LA and I’m seeing this one fall well short of the total.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Michigan St/Kansas St Over 137.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on TBS

This total has ticked up just a little from the open, as some metrics sites project it around 140 points. I think the offensive potential is certainly there for these teams, especially if Kansas State dictates the pace. The Wildcats have been doing that all tournament, resulting in their games producing two of the scarce overs.

Michigan State struggles with up-tempo teams, as well as against the heavy cutting offense K-State runs so well. They’ll also struggle to keep Markquis Nowell from getting downhill, but will be able to keep pace behind their excellent 3-point shooting, which is due for positive regression. With the public narrative focused on the strong under trend last week, I’ll count on two excellent offenses to get this one over a fairly low number.

NCAA Tournament (0.25 Unit) Arkansas +4 vs UConn (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:15 PM CT on CBS

Everyone keeps doubting this Arkansas team, which I’ve been guilty of myself, but I think they’re catching just a little too much here. At more than a full possession of points, I like the value I’m getting on a much lower seed. But when teams with an 8 or 9 seed make the Sweet 16 they’re very profitable, going 18-8-1 ATS all time. That speaks to the doubt and undervaluation of that kind of team, especially one as gritty as Arkansas.

And the Razorbacks have been here before, advancing to the Elite 8 the past two seasons. I think there’s a distinct coaching edge for Eric Musselman over Dan Hurley tonight, and that can overcome a talent and size edge that UConn has. If the Hogs can make shots like they did last week, then they’ll be in this game to the end and maybe find themselves in another Elite 8.

Degenerates

NBA Cleveland Cavaliers -4 @ Brooklyn Nets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on YES

Again, I really don’t like these doubleheader spots the NBA has adopted, and that could turn this game upside down. But after cashing with the Cavs on Tuesday, I just have to go back to that same well. The Nets are really struggling, losers of 4 straight by at least this margin, and it’s thanks to terrible offense.

Brooklyn has only managed 103.5 PPG in those losses, and faced a few suspect defenses. Cleveland brings the league’s top-rated defense, and should be more focused in this game after almost squandering a 24-point lead on Tuesday. With the Cavs also trying to maintain a top-4 playoff seed, I see them taking advantage of the collapsing Nets to get a win and cover again here.

Tiny Nick is 1164-1010 ATS (+74.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.