Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder/San Antonio Spurs Over 236 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK
This game should feature a high pace, limited defense, and plenty of points as a result. These teams are both top-5 in pace, and even though San Antonio is very inefficient offensively, a pick-up game style will mask a lot of that. Where the Spurs are even worse though is defensively, ranked dead last in defensive efficiency.
The Thunder aren’t incompetent defensively, but they are prone to giving up big numbers on occasion, and they’re on a back-to-back with travel here. That’s a situational spot where OKC is 7-3 to the over already this season, and I see it mattering here in a high-tempo game. These teams are the two best over bets in the league this season, so don’t overthink it, take the over.
NBA (0.75 Unit) NY Knicks @ LA Lakers -2 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
It just keeps working for the Lakers, who continue to get priced around the range of one possession in either direction. But a 7-2 straight up and ATS run has rewarded their backers, and I’m not stopping now. The Knicks meanwhile are priced with the fresh memory of their 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS stretch, but this is just not the same team with Jalen Brunson hobbled.
That has shown on this west coast road trip so far, and I think a confident and hot-shooting Lakers squad can extend their woes. With Anthony Davis playing like a man possessed offensively, and his defensive skills able to limit the similarly-hot Julius Randle, the Lakers have a big advantage on both ends of the floor. The Knicks also had last night off, and the potential for the “LA flu” to strike has me backing the home team here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas A&M +5.5 vs Alabama (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN
The 2018 SEC tournament. That’s the last time Alabama defeated Texas A&M, which was before the regimes of either head coach. So that makes Buzz Williams undefeated against Nate Oats, and I think that matters today. Alabama has all the talent they need, and their top gear is probably better than any team in the country. But Williams has the roster he wants, and the man can flat out coach when he has his players.
Alabama is also showing signs of their occasional lulls from beyond the arc, as it showed up yesterday and almost cost them a trip to this title game. They are a brutal basketball team to watch when those shots aren’t dropping, which is the outsized centerpiece of their offense. The Aggies are pretty capable perimeter defenders, and limited the Tide to 19.4% from deep in their regular season victory. With A&M also hot from the field, I think they make this a very tight game if not atone for their SEC title-game loss from last year.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Memphis/Houston Under 135.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:15 PM CT on ESPN
Houston is absolutely locked in defensively right now, and that’s a scary thought even against an excellent Memphis offense. The Cougars are allowing 0.696 points per possession in the conference tournament, which is a ridiculous statistic. While it’s not sustainable, I do think it shows that Houston knows which end of the floor they’ll need to win this game on.
With Marcus Sasser injured yesterday, it places an even bigger premium on defense for the Cougars while also significantly limiting their offense. I expect them to slow this game to a crawl and disrupt the desire of Memphis to play fast in transition. Houston has already held the Tigers to 64 and 65 points in the regular season meetings, so with a defense that’s even more locked in I’m seeing a fairly low-scoring game today.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Penn St/Purdue Over 134.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBS
Penn State is extremely dangerous when their three’s are dropping, which is an obvious cliché in basketball these days but no less true. It’s how they’ve gotten to the Big10 title game as the worst-seeded team to ever do so. Their offensive style is perfect for attacking Purdue’s defense, using pick-and-roll with kicks to open shooters that takes advantage of Zach Edey’s limitations.
But it just didn’t click for the Nittany Lions in either meeting with Purdue this season, although both went comfortably over today’s total. With their offense in a rhythm right now, I think they can improve on their offensive output against the Boilermakers here. But they’ll give up plenty to Purdue, as their undersized frontcourt struggles to defend, and will get chewed up by Edey. Those easy points will raise the overall scoring floor and help carry this game over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1148-983 ATS (+80.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.