Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Brooklyn Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The best way to describe this season for the Wolves might be that they’re just a whack-a-mole team. No positivity for them ever lasts long, tossed away by intermittent confounding performances. But one thing they’ve done pretty consistently is play well early in games, especially at home. Holding on to any lead they create is another story, but I think they can jump out to a strong start again tonight.
Brooklyn has been fairly consistent in the exact opposite way, especially since they overhauled their roster. The Nets are now down to 26th in average first-half margin on the road at minus-4.9 points. And in their 6 road games since the All-Star break they’ve average a halftime deficit of 14.3 points. Brooklyn is on a back-to-back here as well after a hard-fought game in Milwaukee, so I think the Wolves can start fast against them and take a solid lead into half.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Hawks -1.5 @ Washington Wizards (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-DC
Atlanta’s win in DC on Wednesday really wasn’t as close as the 2-point final score. A meaningless 3-pointer as time expired closed the gap to where we find tonight’s spread, but I think Atlanta is the superior team.
They’re playing a lot better under Quinn Snyder and are much happier with him at the helm, finally unleashing Trae Young this season. Their offensive potential is something the Wizards just don’t share, and even though this is one of those strange doubleheader games, I think Atlanta’s upward trajectory gets them another win tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Toronto Raptors @ LA Lakers +1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on NBATV
The Lakers keep getting booked as a team that’s last in its division with poor ATS results. While those things are true, I just don’t think their valuation is taking their overhauled roster into account enough. This team can shoot now, and are no longer the squad that was average at best from the field and weighed down by Russell Westbrook. Tonight they’ll face a Toronto team that’s 28th in opponent field goal percentage, so that improved shooting will pay dividends.
And the Raptors are also a team that’s last in its division with a poor ATS record, especially on the road where they’re 14-20 against the number. And as a road favorite they’re an abysmal 2-10 ATS with a minus-5.8 average ATS margin. Even without LeBron James, the Lakers are well-suited to take advantage of this team. With Anthony Davis looking like his old self and D’Angelo Russell potentially returning tonight, I think LA has what it takes to sneak out another home win.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Ohio vs Toledo -5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Every year it seems like the thought is this is the Toledo team that won’t throw up on itself in the MAC tournament after dominating the conference all season. Everyone’s been fooled before, but this time I truly believe it. The Rockets are just too dominant offensively, too good of shooters, and too locked in on that end for any MAC opponent to compete right now. Even a solid Ohio team got rolled by Toledo back in January by 15 points.
I think the Rockets keep it rolling today behind the country’s most efficient offense that’s still 7th in KenPom when adjusted for opponent. They just shoot it too well, particularly from deep where they’re second nationally. Ohio has a lot of trouble defending beyond the arc, especially away from home where opponents are shooting the 18th-best percentage in the country. A tidal wave of Rocket’s threes should carry them into tomorrow’s MAC title game by a comfortable margin.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Toledo First Half -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Betting Toledo first half might be even more enjoyable than betting them full game. They have an almost unparalleled ability to race out to massive leads as the country’s 3rd-highest scoring team. That has earned them the country’s 4th-best average margin in first halves, and if the matchup edges detailed above bear out, they’ll dominate from the opening tip. The Rockets led by 15 at the half yesterday and 21 in the first meeting with Ohio, so I see another big lead at the break here.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Iowa St +4.5 vs Kansas (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
They don’t call the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City “Hilton South” for no reason. My Cyclones have been dominant against the number at the Big12 tournament, going 16-1-1 ATS their past 18 games after last night’s upset over Baylor. That’s not exactly a trend you can ignore, and with ISU 2-0 ATS against Kansas this season, they know how to play the Jayhawks tough.
The one thing that scares me is the Jayhawks might be playing for Bill Self who was hospitalized the other day. But without his guidance on the sideline, it might be tougher for them to handle a Clones squad that has been shockingly good after dismissing Caleb Grill. With their success in this tournament and against Kansas, I’m liking the chances of another ATS or even outright win here from the Cyclones
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Oregon/UCLA Over 134.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on PAC12 Network
The regular season meetings don’t offer a lot of encouragement to over bettors here, as these teams combined for 122 and 133 points. But I just think you have to consider UCLA to be more of an over team with the loss of Jaylen Clark, their best defensive player. That also cuts into their already short rotation, making it easy for a smart opponent like Dana Altman to tire them out. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the two highest-scoring Bruins games since conference play started are the two that Clark has been out for, and I expect that to continue here against a very low number.
Tiny Nick is 1141-979 ATS (+78.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.