Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110)
Stanford Wong teaser legs, where you use the 6 points to cross through the key numbers of 7 and 3, need to be re-evaluated this season. So far on the year those legs are hitting at around 67% of the time, which translates to a 2-team teaser having a +116 payout as fair market value. But you have to lay juice on any 2-team teaser, and that’s not changing, so I’m changing my approach to teaser legs.
Miami Dolphins/Chicago Bears Over 39.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Don’t tease totals, they say. Well, I’m changing my approach, and attacking this number makes a lot of sense. With Tua Tagovailoa back under center for Miami, this Dolphins offense simply produces. They rank 3rd in pass DVOA and should continue throwing here. The short routes featured in that passing game should shred a Bears defense that just traded away Roquan Smith, the league’s leading tackler.
But don’t sleep on Chicago being able to contribute here, as they’ve put up 33 and 29 points the past two weeks against two defenses ranked far better by the metrics than Miami’s. The weather has also improved in Chicago, and shouldn’t have too much impact on how these teams run their offenses anyway. With this tease taking me through several key totals numbers, I really like having that extra cushion for a game that looks like a shootout.
Buffalo Bills (-5) @ NY Jets: 12:00 PM CT on CBS
This is another teaser play that wouldn’t qualify as “sharp” ordinarily, but it’s one that stands out nonetheless. It would be malpractice to lay double digits on the road in a divisional game, especially with how underdogs have performed this season. But this moves the line through several key numbers, and sets up needing Buffalo to just win by a touchdown.
This is a matchup where the Bills have not messed around the past two seasons, winning every meeting by more than this margin and 15.8 points on average. The Jets are a mirage in my opinion, having benefitted from playing several backup quarterbacks this year, but have to contend with the best offense in the league here.
And their own offensive effectiveness has been lost along with Breece Hall, so I just don’t see them keeping pace. Zach Wilson has graded out to an “F” when under pressure this season, and Buffalo can certainly generate a lot of that. In what could be another Bills runaway game, I’ll just count on them to cover about half of what they’re truly laying.
NFL (0.75 Unit) Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots -2.5 First Half (-110): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
I can’t believe the odds-making here, which looks fairly lazy. Just cutting the full game spread of five points in half doesn’t account for the first-half splits of these teams. Indianapolis has not covered a first-half spread all season, and it’s been 10 straight for them dating back to last season. That is some serious futility that I expect to see continue today.
The Colts check in as the lowest-scoring team before halftime in the entire league, and now go up against a Patriots defense that’s allowing the 7th-fewest points in the first half. With Jonathan Taylor out for this game, Indy will have to rely more on Sam Ehlinger, who I’m sure Bill Belichick has an evil plan for. The Patriots might only need to kick a field goal early to cash this against a struggling and depleted Colts squad.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
With tight end T.J. Hockenson now in purple and gold, I’m expecting St. Brown to be a big beneficiary in the Detroit offense. The 6.1 targets per game that were going to Hockenson are now up for grabs, and there’s precedent to show St. Brown will see them come his way.
Amon-Ra took off last season when Hockenson was sidelined by injury for 5 games, averaging 8.3 receptions and 91.7 yards. In a game where the Lions are likely to be trailing, I see Jared Goff zeroing in on his top receiver and getting him over this relatively low total.
NFL (0.5 Unit) LA Rams/Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 42.5 (-110): 3:25 PM CT on CBS
Two teams competing for the title of most disappointing in the league face off here, and a whole lot of that disappointment has been on the offensive side of the ball. These squads are a combined 11-4 to the under on the year, and I see another coming here.
The main culprit for these teams’ scoring woes is poor offensive line play, along with shared futility in the run game. But even when they get something going through the air, they both struggle to finish drives and put points on the board. The Rams check in at 28th in points per play, with the Bucs just one spot above them. That incredibly inefficient offense is what leads to the stalled drives and plenty of punts I’m expecting here.
This is also a game between two teams with glimmers of hope to get back in the playoff chase, so this game will be pivotal for the winner and loser. That should create a hard-fought and physical style where defense is more of the story. With this total sitting just on the right side of 6 total touchdowns, I like it to stay under the number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 925-776 ATS (+84.0 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.