Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Utah Jazz/Dallas Mavericks Over 221 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

Books are getting closer to accurately lining totals for this Dallas Mavericks team, but I still don’t think they’ve quite caught up. The same can be said for their valuation of the Utah Jazz in general, who continue to surprise the entire league. But both teams have the players and style needed to cash overs, which is exactly what’s been happening with them combining for a 10-4 record over this total.

It’s really all about Dallas’ highly efficient offense here, as the Mavs are scoring 1.151 points per possession. They’re also top-5 in overall scoring, floor percentage, and effective field goal rate. That machine of an offense should get sped up tonight by a Jazz team playing at the league’s third-fastest pace. And the Utah defense has really struggled on the road, allowing 115.3 regulation points per game. That should create a track meet style of game here, which has an excellent chance to get over once again.

NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans -3 @ LA Lakers (-110): 9:30 PM CT on SportsNet LA

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Lakers for momentarily stopping the sky from falling by earning their first win on Sunday. But things do not get any easier for this flawed team, as the New Orleans Pelicans look like the better squad in almost every facet of the game. I’d consider this a fairly interesting line as well, with the Pelicans still missing Brandon Ingram, yet they’re giving a full possession of points on the road to a highly-public Laker team.

I just don’t see how LA’s offense can keep up here. They’re still 29th in per-game and per-possession scoring, with the lowest effective field goal rate as well. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are now the league’s highest-scoring team, with the third-best offensive efficiency mark. And they have good news on the injury front, as top defensive player Herb Jones is set to return tonight. That will help slow a Laker offense that just can’t get out of its own way right now, and makes them a fade team until they prove me wrong.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 922-771 ATS (+83.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.