Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) New Mexico St. Team Total Under 8 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

While this number doesn’t leave much room for error, it’s deservingly low, in my opinion. It also seems like the best play in this game, as laying more than five touchdowns with the Gophers is something I’m definitely not comfortable with.

But Minnesota’s defense should be excellent this season, with rumblings that it could be a top-10 unit nationally. As warmup games against complete cupcakes go, it doesn’t get much easier than this for that defensive unit. New Mexico State got to play in Week 0, and it wasn’t pretty. The Aggies managed 10 offensive points against a very weak Nevada team, turning it over 5 times in the process.

The Gophers will feast on defense against that kind of execution, especially with NMSU still trying to figure out which of their inexperienced QBs to feature. This game should be a microcosm of the season goals for the Gophers: stout defense and ball-control offense. I just don’t see the Aggies having the opportunity to put many, if any, points on the board.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Central Michigan/Oklahoma St Over 58 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

These two teams have very similar questions surrounding them after this past offseason. The Cowboys and Chippewas had important personnel losses on the defensive side but retained key pieces on offense. That has me expecting points in this game as both defenses appear vulnerable.

Oklahoma State not only saw their defensive coordinator jump ship to Ohio State but they also were decimated in the second and third levels of the defense. Despite being a top-5 unit overall last season, that defense already had issues with penalties and missed tackles, two problems that I see worsening this season. Veteran QB Daniel Richardson and some excellent skill players for CMU should be able to exploit those weaknesses at least to some degree, especially once OK St. calls off the dogs late.

But the Cowboys should explode offensively in this game, returning to coach Mike Gundy’s specialty — high-octane offense. That unit should torch a Chippewa secondary with almost all new faces, as QB Spencer Sanders has all his top targets back from last season. The Pokes have gotten all the love on the spread for this game, telling me a blowout is likely. They’re liable to approach this total on their own, so any contribution from CMU will push this game into the 60s and beyond.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Tennessee Team Total Over 51.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network

Pedal to the metal, all game, every game. That pretty much sums up what the Tennessee offense will be this season, particularly in a warmup game against a bad defense. Volunteers coach Josh Heupel has never had any qualms about running up the score, and he has the personnel to do it against almost anyone this season in Knoxville. This should be a top-10 if not top-5 offense behind QB Hendon Hooker, who is generating first-round draft chatter. Returning their top running back in Jabari Small, a potential all-SEC talent in receiver Cedric Tillman, and most of the offensive line should have the Vols breaking scoreboards this year.

I expect Tennessee to be able to score in bunches against anyone, even the best SEC defenses later this season. But tonight’s game is against a potential disaster of a defense. Ball State is in complete rebuilding mode on that side of the ball. The linebackers and secondary are as green as it gets, making them extremely vulnerable to the Volunteers’ elite talent. Size, speed, aggressiveness, and tempo should combine for a massive day out of the Tennessee offense. They had no problem scoring at this level last season against their cupcake opponents, and an improved unit for this season should have no trouble tonight either.

NCAA Football (0.25 Unit) Cal Poly/Fresno St. Over 57.5 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on FS1

Unfortunately, these extra-board games don’t usually post team totals or first-half numbers because I’d be very interested in backing Fresno State on those lines. But this full game total will do since I see Fresno keeping the scoreboard operator plenty busy tonight. With Jake Haener back at quarterback for the Bulldogs, coach Jeff Tedford’s brilliant offensive mind will have this offense firing on all cylinders. Haener and his two top receiving targets from last season will be tough for any defense to slow down this year.

But Cal Poly isn’t just any defense, they’re a truly awful one from the FCS level. Last season’s version allowed 39.2 PPG to a schedule with all FCS opponents except one, a 63-10 beating by Fresno State. They aren’t going to be any better this year, but Fresno’s offense will with its passing game continuity. The Bulldogs have huge games upcoming against Oregon State and USC, so they’ll want to make sure everything is clicking for their offense. That spells plenty of points in my book, so look for Fresno to possibly eclipse this total on their own as the over cashes with ease.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 835-703 ATS (+75.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.