Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit Each) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 96.5 and Denver Nuggets Team Total Over 101.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on TNT

Whether it’s the NBA, NHL, or MLB, books are always going to create a Game 7 total tax. That makes it tough for anyone who wants to bet the under on principle, but creates opportunities for anyone willing to punch back against the deflated numbers. I’m willing to here, and my sense is that the worst case scenario is going 1-1 on these bets.

While this series has been absolutely drunk from the start, there’s been enough offense sporadically produced by both teams to make me think this won’t be a Game 7 that fits cleanly into the low-scoring narrative. The Nuggets are definitely bouncing back from being held to 70 points, and the Wolves have cleared this number all three times in Denver, so I’ll take my chances here. #WolvesBack.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Close out game. Stars gonna star.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers/NY Knicks Over 208 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

I’m punching back against the Game 7 under tax here as well. The adjustment is severe, as this series has seen an average closing total of 218.5, an average score of 224.5 points with a 6-0 record over this number. These teams have had just one bad offensive showing apiece in the six games, and I’m not a believer that they’ll both flop today. If the Pacers are smart they’ll try to run all game against the ultra-depleted Knicks roster, which should create pace and points since Indiana struggles to stop anything in return. Once again, not paying the tax for the under but taking the discount instead.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Jalen Brunson Over 46.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Close out game. Stars gonna star.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Seattle Storm @ Washington Mystics +6.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:00 PM CT on Monumental

I don’t believe that the Storm should be favored over anyone right now, especially this big of a number on the road. Seattle just isn’t putting it together right now, with a lot of defensive struggles making things worse for their offense not gelling. Washington isn’t going to drop a ton of points, but they will shoot a lot of three’s which the Storm have had trouble defending. The Mystics held their own at home in the season opener against an excellent Liberty team, only losing by 5 points. A struggling Seattle squad shouldn’t be laying more than that, so I’ll take the points here.

Degenerates

NBA Indiana Pacers ML @ NY Knicks (+140; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

At what point do all the injury concerns for New York end up costing them? The Knicks have been dodging bullets on that front for what seems like forever now, but the laundry list of important players who are banged up is just too long. The Josh Hart injury feels extra important, and OG Anunoby refuses to play unless he’s 100 percent, so the Knicks are simply running out of bodies. The Pacers by contrast are basically fully healthy, and with the NBA Playoffs being a war of attrition to see which team stays healthy, I’ll take a shot on them to outlast the Knicks today.

Tiny Nick is 2285-2105 ATS (+84.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.