Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers/Denver Nuggets Over 228.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
The Lakers are having considerable difficulty scoring, but things might be looking up in that department tonight. You’d have to think facing the league’s most generous defense is a great opportunity to turn it around, and that’s exactly what the Denver Nuggets have been. They’re allowing the most points in the league, and are 29th in defensive efficiency and opponent floor percentage.
The Nuggets let a middling offensive team in the Portland Trail Blazers drop 135 points on them, so the precedent is there for a Lakers turnaround. LA also averages the second-most possessions per game, so they’ll have plenty of opportunities against that poor defense. Combined with a strong Denver offense, that should create the environment needed for a high-scoring game.
And if you need any other justification here, Russell Westbrook will miss this game, significantly reducing the number of wasted possessions. I’ve anecdotally noticed national TV games being higher-scoring this season, and this one should not disappoint.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers +2.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW
This really just boils down to not understanding the line. Portland is really riding high courtesy of a 4-0 ATS start, and it just seems like the market hasn’t caught up to their success yet. Meanwhile, Miami has looked terrible, just sneaking out their lone win and failing to cover at all so far.
A lot of preseason priors go into these lines this early in the season, and expectations for these teams were drastically different. Expectations have not matched up with reality at all for either squad, and my sense is that odds makers are not ready to abandon those priors quite yet. The result is a public Miami team laying a short and tempting number, but I’ll count on Portland to keep on rolling and likely pull the outright upset here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 911-757 ATS (+83.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.