Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Houston/Navy Over 51.5 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on ESPNU
Taking the over in a game involving a service academy isn’t always the best idea, but this one is different. That’s because this Navy team is looking different on offense than you’d expect, throwing the football quite a bit recently. It’s been out of necessity, though, as the Midshipmen have found themselves in a couple of track meets, with their games hitting 74 combined points in consecutive weeks.
Navy’s pass defense has been the big problem, getting torched this year and ranking 111th in pass yards allowed. They have another really tough task in slowing down this Houston passing game, which is fresh off the bye week. But the Cougars have not shown the ability to stop anything this season, allowing the 17th-most points per game in the country. A Navy team that always plays a full 60 minutes should be able to get plenty of points on the board to boost this one over the total.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Memphis @ Tulane -3.5 First Half (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN2
How does Memphis pick themselves up off the mat for this one? I’m having a hard time thinking of a team that’s had a worse two-game stretch than this Tigers squad, and it has to be weighing on them today. Memphis has blown three-score leads in consecutive weeks to conference foes and now faces its toughest opponent since an opening-week loss to Mississippi State. You’d almost have to give them a pass for coming out flat in this one, disheartened as they likely are.
But that won’t stop me from capitalizing on the spot with a strong Tulane team. The Green Wave broke into the top 25 this week, should be undefeated and are looking focused in their three straight victories. Their elite pass defense should slow down Memphis early in this one, while veteran quarterback Michael Pratt picks apart a Tigers defense allowing the 5th-most passing yards in the country.
And Tulane coach Willie Fritz is outstanding at home, covering 71% of his games since taking over here in 2016, the best of any coach in that timeframe. Memphis might wake up late, but this situational spot is definitely one to take advantage of.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Boston College @ Wake Forest -20.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ACC Network
I just have to lay the points here with this number sitting below three full touchdowns. You’re getting the elite Wake Forest offense, led by a red-hot Sam Hartman, having had a bye week to prepare for this game. Boston College had a bye week, but I really overestimated the talent level of the Eagles this season. They’re allowing 33.8 points per game in ACC play and now have to face the best and most relentless offense in the country.
BC has been entirely uncompetitive in their conference losses this season, losing by an average score of 34-9 and getting trucked by their only quality opponents. The Demon Deacons would certainly qualify as a quality opponent, and should unleash their rested and well-prepared passing game here. With where they stand in the rankings, Wake needs to get blowout wins in this soft part of their schedule, so expect them to run it up today.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Marshall @ James Madison -12.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN+
One of the better stories in college football this season hit a bump last week as James Madison fell on the road to Georgia Southern in a shootout. My sense is the Dukes were a victim of reading their own press clippings after cracking the top-25 in their first season at the FBS level. But being back home here, where they’ve been an absolute machine, should be exactly what they need to get back on track.
They’ll host an enigmatic Marshall team, which has looked awful since their stunning win at Notre Dame. This is a Thundering Herd team that wants to run the ball a lot, as they have the 11th-most rush attempts per game in the country. But they’re up against arguably the best run defense out there, certainly by yards allowed. A much more balanced offense from James Madison should be a big key here, as will getting refocused and lead to another big home win for this fun Dukes team.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Kansas/Baylor Over 58 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on ESPN2
Kansas is going to have to stop getting into a shootout every week before I stop taking the over in their games. The Jayhawks are now 6-1 over this total on the season, and have had some significant defensive liabilities exposed in conference play. Fast-paced Big 12 offenses that love to throw have thrived against Kansas, who is now allowing the 7th-most passing yards in the country.
Even Blake Shapen and Baylor should be able to take advantage here, as he proved himself last week against a similarly awful West Virginia defense. But no Jalon Daniels has been no problem for KU offensively, with backup quarterback Jason Bean taking the Jayhawks up and down the field in relief. Baylor has had 34.3 points scored on them per game in conference play, so Kansas should again put up plenty here. With vulnerable defenses likely to create another typical Big 12 shootout, this total just isn’t high enough.
Tiny Nick is 907-752 ATS (+82.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.