Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oklahoma State/TCU Over 68.5 Points (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

This game has all the indicators of a typical Big 12 shootout, and I think it finds its way to the over despite a high number. These teams are tied for the third-most points per game in the country while also being vulnerable on defense. Particularly Oklahoma State, who comes into this game ranked 125th in passing yards allowed. TCU quarterback Max Duggan has been incredible so far and should be able to exploit that poor secondary.

But this should be a back-and-forth game throughout, where both squads trade points consistently. Cowboys coach Mike Gundy is excellent in these spots as an underdog, so Oklahoma State will stay close all game. Neither team has seen big margins in their conference games, so that theory should hold true. However, they have seen plenty of scoring, as on the season, they’re a combined 7-3 over this total.

It’s also very hot in Fort Worth today, so it could be a tough day on the defenses. OSU’s defense already comes in tired, as they were on the field for 104 plays last week. By the end of the afternoon, both defenses and the scoreboard operator should be worn out in a game that gets over the number.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Arkansas/BYU Over 67 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

This game features primary offensive strength versus primary defensive weakness in both directions, and I see that leading to plenty of points. Both teams are also getting healthier, with BYU getting key receivers back and Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson returning after a one-game absence. That should only serve to increase the strength-on-weakness matchup for this game.

It’s all about the run game for Arkansas, as Jefferson is one of the best running quarterbacks in the country, plus they have the SEC’s leading rusher in Raheim Sanders. BYU is just 95th in rushing yards allowed, and the last time they faced an excellent rushing team, they surrendered 41 points to Oregon.

But the Cougars should feast on offense as well, with quarterback Jaren Hall picking apart the country’s fifth-worst pass defense. That defense will be even more challenged by the elevation in Provo, so I see BYU throwing early and often. Neither team has had a game so far with the total lined this high, but there’s good reason why it is today, and they should find their way over it.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Florida State Team Total Under 23.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ABC

Florida State’s offense has been very stagnant the past couple weeks, and now they face the toughest test of the season. The Seminoles scored just 17 points against NC State and 21 against Wake Forest, the latter of which is the most troubling since NC State actually has a strong defense. But neither of those opponents have anything on the defensive side of the ball like Clemson brings, and the Tigers are bringing the best version of themselves tonight.

Coach Dabo Swinney talked about how he’s very excited to have the defense fully healthy for this game, particularly their best player in lineman Bryan Bresee. It’s just a really tough matchup that they present for FSU, as the ‘Noles rely heavily on the run but Clemson allows the second-fewest rush yards in the country. This could very well turn into a close game with FSU in a hyped home spot, but their own defense will have to step up for that as I don’t see them getting too much done offensively.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 894-743 (+80.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.