Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) TCU @ Kansas +8 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on FS1
If you’ve been riding the cash cow that is Kansas football, you definitely can’t jump off now. The 8-game cover streak for the Jayhawks extends into last season, and they’ve now won 3 games outright as an underdog this year. Yet they’re still mispriced here because of the preseason perception and their years-long history of futility. But coach Lance Leipold has his team executing at an extremely high level, their quarterback Jalon Daniels looks like Superman, and they’re well-suited to pull another upset today.
It’s all about the spot here for me, which is an essential element of college football handicapping, don’t let anyone tell you differently. I see it as pretty tough for an overachieving TCU team to get back up for this game after the biggest win of their season, knocking off Oklahoma last week. Now they have to go on the road against a red-hot team in a sold-out stadium, which will be even more juiced up with College Gameday in town. Laying over a touchdown in that situation is just too much. While this might be a public dog, I have to take the points and be proven wrong by KU before I stop backing them.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): TCU/Kansas Over 68.5 (-110)
It’s a high number for sure, but still below the glass ceiling of 70 total points. The offenses are going to be the story here, with Jalon Daniels and TCU quarterback Max Duggan both being elite dual-threats. Both teams have offensive-minded head coaches and defenses allowing plenty of yards. This has the look and feel of a traditional Big12 shootout.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Utah -3 @ UCLA (-110): 2:30 PM CT on FOX
This is another game where I just have to continue backing a team that I had high expectations for this season. Utah really should not be considered anything less than the class of the conference, and have shown it over the past few weeks. This is by far the smallest price you’ve had to pay to back the Utes, and once again, I’ll need to be proven wrong before abandoning them.
UCLA did surprise me last week by beating a real team after the softest schedule possible to open their season. But that still wasn’t the level of competition they’ll face here, particularly given the strong defense Utah brings. UCLA picked apart a poor Washington secondary last week, but Utah has one of the best pass defenses in the country. The Utes also have an excellent front seven to contain the mobility of Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
It’s also been tough going for Chip Kelly against Utah since he arrived in LA, losing all three meetings by a combined 134-37 margin. That perfect ATS mark for Utah should be furthered in this game as they look to keep their slim CFP hopes alive with a high-profile win.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) North Carolina/Miami FL Over 66 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN2
It’s always worthwhile to fade this UNC defense that’s allowing the 12th most yards and 19th most points in the country. And that’s after feeble Virginia Tech only managed 273 yards and 10 points against them in a rainstorm last week. A team that allowed 40 points in a single quarter is going to get a permanent spot on my list of teams to target for overs. Their opponent this week isn’t bad in that regard either, as the Hurricanes were exposed in a big way their last time out.
The bottom line, though, is these teams are combining to average 956 yards per game on offense while allowing a combined 786 per game. They also play at breakneck speed, with UNC 18th in seconds per play while Miami is 4th in total plays per game. The Canes have also watched their preseason hopes go down the drain in their past couple of games. That should cause them to let potential first-round pick Tyler Van Dyke sling it and pad his stats against this bad defense. I don’t see either team stopping anything in a defense-optional game here, so this high total should be well within reach.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Clemson/Boston College Over 48.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ABC
Clemson’s pass defense might be the single biggest weakness for any of the top-5 teams in the country. They’re 92nd in passing yards allowed, and that’s definitely not what you want if you have playoff aspirations. This game presents a tough challenge for that pass defense, and I think they’re vulnerable to the Boston College offense. The Eagles have one of the best game-breaking receivers in the country with Zay Flowers, who went wild last week and has had plenty of success against Clemson in the past.
The Tigers also enter this game missing their best defensive player overall in lineman Bryan Bresee. However, there should be no shortage of points coming from Clemson here. Their excellent run game should go wild against a BC defense that’s been getting gashed on the ground. The Eagles have had no answer for ACC offenses the past two weeks, allowing 44 and 33 points to teams with less talent and motivation than Clemson. Given the ability of both teams to put up points here, this total should be in the mid 50’s so grab the over.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Iowa Team Total Under 16.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on BTN
If you enjoyed watching Thursday Night Football between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos, then boy, do I have a game for you. I’m just not seeing where the points are going to come from in this game overall, but particularly from the Iowa side. The Hawkeyes aren’t moving the ball in any way, shape, or form right now. They have the second-fewest yards per game in the country and bottom-12 ranks for both passing and rushing yardage.
You even have to take their 16.4 points per game stat with a grain of salt because the defense has scored 18 for them, so in truth, it’s just 11.4 PPG offensively. Those numbers are certainly offensive, and about to get worse against a stout Illinois defense. The Illini have allowed the fewest points and third-fewest yards per game in the country, and just proved it’s no fluke by holding Wisconsin to 10 points in Madison.
It’s just not going to be possible for Iowa to move the ball, and a slow-paced game played almost exclusively on the ground will limit possessions and scoring chances for the Hawkeyes. Avert your eyes if you want to see offense, but all tickets cash the same, so don’t miss out on this number.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Oregon State -5 @ Stanford (-110): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN
This Stanford program has fallen off a cliff, and even a quarterback expected to go in the first round of next year’s draft hasn’t kept them competitive. The Cardinal are one of the few teams yet to cover in a game this season and have lost 10 straight games against FBS competition. During that losing streak, they’ve fallen by at least 13 points 7 times, and are allowing 42.7 PPG in those 7 blowout losses.
I just don’t see it getting any better here against an Oregon State team whose value in the betting market is deflated after getting run out by Utah last week. The Utes will do that to teams, but this is still a very talented Beavers squad with a good quarterback leading a balanced offense. Stanford’s defense just hasn’t been up to the task in Pac-12 games this season, allowing at least 40 points to all 3 opponents. That should be their undoing again in this one, so I’d lay the points if you’re looking for some late-night action.
Tiny Nick is 882-734 ATS (+80.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.