Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Brooklyn Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Frustrating loss last night from the Wolves, and one they couldn’t really afford. It drops them into a tie in the Western Conference standings, and they need to start making better use of this long homestand. I think they bounce back well here, particularly early as the frustrations of last night’s 3rd quarter get taken out on Brooklyn.
The lowly Nets have really collapsed, not even getting a bounce from firing their coach, and Minnesota should pounce on them. The Nets are 23rd in average first half margin in road games, with nothing to play for, so a hungry Wolves team should take advantage early tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) West Virginia @ Iowa State -10 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Now to my other favorite basketball team. This is a drastically different number for my Cyclones to be laying in the first half compared to recent home games, but also a drastically different opponent. West Virginia shouldn’t be this bad, but they are, and the results in Big12 play haven’t been pretty. The Mountaineers have visited four quality opponents in conference play, and fallen behind at half by at least this margin three times, averaging a 14.5 point deficit.
Iowa State and their plus-16.1 average first half margin in home games is going to be too much for WVU to overcome. The Clones are 6-0 ATS to the first half number in their Big12 home games, albeit against much shorter numbers. But this is a very favorable matchup for them against a Mountaineers team that turns it over a lot and can’t score inside the arc. After a tough loss in Houston on Monday, look for ISU to come out with a vengeance and roll from the start.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa/Illinois Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:15 PM CT on BTN
This is all about easy points and efficiency, plus an up-tempo style that I think leads to a ton of scoring. I’ve mentioned it before, but Iowa’s new style of not relying on three’s has made them one of the best two-point offenses in the country. The Hawkeyes are 16th nationally for the percentage of their points generated inside the arc, and they shoot it at a very high percentage.
Illinois is fairly solid defensively, but their defense allows teams to get 59.2% of their points from two-pointers, which is 5th-most in the country. The Illini offense is elite though, ranked 5th in adjusted efficiency, and goes up against an Iowa team that still prefers to not play defense. Neither team commits or forces many turnovers, and both play at top-60 adjusted tempos, so look for this game to get up and down the floor with lots of easy buckets.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Carolina @ Ole Miss -3.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on SEC Network
An unranked home team is laying points to a ranked visitor, and that should set off alarm bells in general. It’s just tough to win on the road in college basketball, especially this time of year, and that’s what this number reflects. Ole Miss has really been struggling, but this team is still alive in the bubble discussion as long as they get their revenge in this one.
The Rebels almost took down South Carolina a few weeks ago, and I think they get it done this time around. The Gamecocks are due for regression after everything was going right for them, and that’s started showing up in their two straight losses. Off a loss in an in-state rivalry game, give me Ole Miss here to ride their excellent shooting to a convincing revenge win.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) North Carolina/Virginia Under 130.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN
It’s Virginia, so on any given night they might not get to 50 points with how slow and weak their offense is. It’s official, the Cavaliers are now down to dead last in adjusted tempo, and they should be able to dictate that style on their own floor. And even though North Carolina likes playing fast, they just tend to struggle against Virginia, losing 7 of the past 10 meetings.
The under is also 6-3-1 in those 10 games, plus UNC has turned into more of an under team this season. Their defense is finally elite, ranked 10th in adjusted efficiency, and is great against the three which is what UVA relies on for their limited points. This one should be slow and tightly guarded, so look for Virgina’s home record of 11-5 to the under to be extended today.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Virgina Tech @ Pittsburgh -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on The CW
This is a nice short price to play two teams in completely opposite situational spots. Virginia Tech is off a massive home win over in-state rival Virginia, which was a fairly fluky win. So the Hokies are ripe for a letdown in this road game against a pretty solid Pittsburgh team. The Panthers are off an embarrassing blowout at Wake Forest, and return home where they’ve been dominant against the weaker ACC teams. VaTech is just 1-6 both straight up and ATS in conference road games, so lay the short number in this contrast of spots game.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Santa Clara @ Gonzaga -8 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN2
If the old Gonzaga is anywhere to be found in this year’s team, then this is the spot for them to show up and do Gonzaga things. The Bulldogs find themselves in a rare WCC revenge spot, having lost to Santa Clara by a single point last month. Back at The Kennel, with national TV in the house, it’s a spot where in years past you’ve always been able to count on a fast start from the Zags. They’ve been much better since their home loss to St Mary’s, seeming to take their bubble status pretty seriously. That should also motivate them to make a statement tonight, so look for that to start right away.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Washington/Arizona Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on CBS
Just leave the channel on CBS this afternoon if you like points, as I think the track meets start here. We’re getting the predictability of angry Arizona in this game after the Wildcats were stifled by an excellent Washington State team on Thursday. They don’t like losing, especially at McKale Center, and always look to take it out on whichever team they face next. Against a Washington team that’s also up-tempo and can score, this one could get wild. We were finally starting to see peak Arizona offensively before Thursday, and a return to that version with some extra motivation should really dial up the scoring for this game.
NCAA Basketball Alabama/Kentucky Over 174.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on CBS
This game has the best offense by adjusted efficiency, the 9th-best offense by adjusted efficiency, two top-15 teams in pace, two top-15 teams in effective field goal rate, two top-15 teams in three-point percentage, and two defenses that have issues to put it nicely. So how do you bet the under here? I know smart money has, and that’s scary when they go against the analytics gurus, but I just can’t.
Tiny Nick is 2071-1871 ATS (+102.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.