Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Butler/Villanova Under 141.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FS1

From a pure metrics standpoint these teams are pretty solid offensively, but extremely inconsistent. And they’re both far better defensively, which should be the story in this rematch. Ignore the first meeting between these teams that hit 169 points because it needed double overtime to get there – this game should be much more measured. With both teams squarely on the bubble I expect big defensive efforts, especially from Villanova who has a top-20 defense in the country. But the Wildcats are madly in love with the three-ball which Butler is great at defending, so expect points to be limited tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Iowa @ Michigan State -9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock

Michigan State is not afraid to blow out opponents, and the more they do it, the more they make up for the rough start they had this season. In typical Tom Izzo fashion, this team is hitting its stride at the right time and should have an opportunity to run out Iowa here. It’s a really tough matchup stylistically for the Hawkeyes, as their desire to play in transition runs into arguably the best transition defense in the country.

The Spartans are also one of the best two-point percentage defenses in the country, neutralizing an Iowa team that is 17th nationally for the percentage of their points they score inside the arc. We all know Iowa can’t stop a nose bleed, especially on the road, and MSU hasn’t faced a defense this porous since they played Stony Brook before Christmas. If the Spartans get those stops in transition, this one is headed for another double-digit win for an MSU team that’s 11-4 ATS at home this season.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Tennessee -11.5 @ Missouri (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network

A quick check of the calendar shows that it’s not quite March yet, so Regular Season Rick should have this Tennessee team ready to roll tonight. I don’t think they’ll have a tough time of it against Mizzou, arguably the worst team in the strong SEC. The Volunteers have been bullies against the weaklings of the conference, covering this margin in road games against Vanderbilt and Arkansas.

This Tennessee team has so many advantages on both ends of the court as a top-15 offense and top-5 defense, it’s tough to see any success for a Tigers team that’s actually played worse at home this season. Remember to fade Tennessee once we get to the postseason, but this game against a cupcake opponent should see them hand down another blowout.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UConn @ Creighton +3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on FS1

Three thousand six hundred eighty-four. That’s how many days it’s been since UConn beat a ranked opponent in a true road game. The Huskies have two national titles to their name in that 10-year span, making it even more improbable that they’ve struggled like this away from home. Like many people who watched any of what they did to Marquette on Saturday, I’m almost ready to crown UConn with another natty, but let’s pump the brakes just a little.

This Creighton team is going to have something to say about that tonight, and they have the ability to slow the UConn juggernaut down. The Bluejays have their own elite 7-footer and athletic wings that can keep the Huskies in check. Plus they have the shooting, especially from deep, that can challenge a UConn defense due for regression against the three. The Huskies are elite but not invincible, and with that 10-year history creating a little self-doubt, I’ll take the points with a fired-up home team here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Maryland/Wisconsin Over 130.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Peacock

I don’t think this cratering Wisconsin team should be favored by as much as they are today. But instead of taking the points with Maryland, I think the closer game than anticipated will fuel scoring. Big Ten games between teams like this always seem to be tight to the end, creating the opportunity for extra foul-game points.

And Wisconsin has not been playing the type of basketball we’ve come to expect out of them, going over this total in 8 of the past 10 games. Line movement away from the KenPom and other metric site projections is also a big indicator, so look for this one to clear the low total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) TCU Team Total Over 70.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Texas Tech is not the defensive machine that they’ve been in recent years, nor are they what you’d really expect from a Grant McCasland coached squad. While they’re rated pretty highly on that end, cracks exist that TCU should be able to take advantage of tonight. McCasland’s teams at North Texas were relentless defensively, especially on the inside, but the Red Raiders are allowing a much higher success rate on two-pointers.

That should allow a TCU team that lives inside the arc to have success again, just as they did when hanging 85 in the first meeting. Tech has allowed more than this in 8 of their 12 conference games, while the Horned Frogs have gone over it in 9 of their 12 conference games, so expect another here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2056-1861 ATS (+100.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.