Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Eastern Conference/Western Conference Over 364 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on TNT
If you’re not betting the over in the All-Star game, then what’s even the point? This number has actually ticked down a little from the open, so hopefully that’s not smart money knowing Anthony Edwards will keep taking every shot left-handed. But we’re finally rid of the Elam Ending format that plagued this event for the past several years with how it limited scoring. I’m looking back to the 2016 and 2017 events, the last East vs West matchups, that had 369 and 374 points, respectively. Let’s get back to that kind of showcase, and hope that Ant realized he isn’t ambidextrous.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Tyrese Haliburton To Win MVP (+1600; Odds via DraftKings)
Haliburton appears to be fully healthy and therefore should be a full-go for tonight. With the game being played in Indianapolis, it’s worth noting that 8 of the past 24 All-Star game MVPs have had some kind of connection to the host city. If Haliburton continues to stuff the stat sheet, he’s a great value at this number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Rutgers @ Minnesota -2 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:30 PM CT on BTN
The secret is out on Minnesota being the best ATS team in the country after they put a scare into Purdue this week. The full-game spread is rising rapidly as a result, but this first-half number still has plenty of value.
Rutgers comes in off a big comeback win on Thursday, and have to face a Gophers team that should be motivated to build off their big halftime lead at Purdue. Halftime leads are commonplace for the Gophers, especially at The Barn where they have a plus-6.5 average first half margin. Compare that to Rutgers who has a minus-5.1 average first half margin in road games, and this number seems cheap.
The Scarlet Knights have trailed at half in all of their conference road games, averaging a 7.8 point deficit. Rutgers gets so stagnant offensively, and are 303rd in first half scoring, that a Gopher defense built to slow their interior scoring should capitalize, so I like them to have a solid halftime lead.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Utah @ UCLA -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1
You just can’t trust Utah away from their big home-court advantage. It’s getting a little ridiculous that they’ve been essentially trounced in every PAC12 road game so far, going 0-6 both ATS and straight up. This team has cratered the past few weeks, flushing their NCAA tournament hopes in the process, and I think it continues here.
Backers of UCLA today get the benefit of the Bruins still not being respected in the analytics or the market thanks to their awful start. The rock bottom of their season was the 46-point loss at Utah, so a team that’s been on a 7-1-1 ATS run ever since is a good candidate to get their revenge today. The biggest road problem for the Utes is their offense falling off a cliff, so this excellent UCLA defense should shut them down and earn the win by margin.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Utah Team Total Under 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
The Utes didn’t bring their offense to LA on Thursday, so I don’t know that it will arrive by today. They only managed 64 points against a USC defense that can’t guard the three, which is what Utah relies on. This excellent UCLA defense is what carries them, the country’s 14th-best scoring defense that’s allowing just 64.5 PPG on the season. None of their PAC12 opponents have come into Pauley, where they allow just 61.2 PPG, and eclipse this team total. I don’t believe for one second that Utah will today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2055-1857 ATS (+100.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.