Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Clippers First Half Team Total Over 64.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SC
The Clippers offense is a rocket ship right now, and tonight they face the softest opponent you can have in this league. The Wizards are actually not the worst overall defense in the NBA, but they are in home games for whatever reason, ranked dead last in home defensive efficiency. They also allow the most points in home games, and critically for this play are allowing the most first half points with an average of 63.8 at home. The Clippers were just stifled by Cleveland’s defense on Monday so they should be eager to get out and run up the points, which I think they do here with ease.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Northwestern @ Purdue -7.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:30 PM CT on BTN
It’s hard for me to think of a better smash spot than Purdue in the first half of a revenge game at home. That’s what we have here, and I think the line is far too short given their tendencies and the situation. Purdue is actually looking to get revenge for two straight losses to Northwestern, both of which were on the road. The Boilermakers are a wagon at home though, especially in the first half where they lead the country in average margin.
They’ve had five home games against power conference teams this season, which they’ve led at half each time by an average of 17.6 points and covered this number every time. Purdue actually led at half in Evanston this season by 8 before their three-point shooting fell off a cliff in the second half. The Boilers are always hot from long range at home, so that should help them get off to another strong start at Mackey where they’re covering at the break.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Purdue First Half Team Total Over 37.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Those three’s should be dropping all game, and it should lead to another big first half on the scoreboard for Purdue. This is the second-best offense by adjusted efficiency in the country, and they’re shooting it at the 6th-best percentage from deep. Northwestern comes in ranked 300th in opponent three-point percentage, so expect a barrage from the Boilermakers.
Purdue is 3rd nationally in first-half scoring at 42.5 PPG, as well as at home with 45.9 PPG. Those five home games against power conference opponents have seen them average 46.8 before half, so in a highly-motivated spot they should cruise over this total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Florida/Kentucky Over 170.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
This game is almost guaranteed to get wild on the scoreboard, and I don’t think there’s a total high enough that books could reasonably set. For some unknown reason this is lower than the 172 points they finished with in the first meeting down in Gainesville, and Kentucky being at home should boost scoring even more. That’s where the Wildcats are averaging 92.7 PPG, hitting the 90-point threshold in all their SEC home games as well.
These are two incredible offensive teams, with Florida 14th and Kentucky 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Gators and Wildcats fly up and down the floor as well, ranked 18th and 12th, respectively, in adjusted tempo. But the defenses are just plain weak, as they allow lots of easy buckets while preferring to play a style similar to the NBA’s Pacers. We should see that high-flying style tonight, especially since John Calipari loves to show off on ESPN, so look for this game to get into the 170’s without too much trouble.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Vanderbilt @ Auburn -10.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
This isn’t as big of a smash spot situationally as we have with Purdue, but it’s pretty close and it’s definitely a bigger mismatch. Auburn should be highly motivated to get off to a fast start tonight as they return home after a couple tough road losses. That’s nothing to be ashamed of in the rugged SEC, but this Vanderbilt team is the conference’s clear cellar-dweller and should get run out here.
The Tigers are right behind Purdue with the 3rd-best average first half margin this season, including in home games. Auburn’s five home games against power conference opponents have seen them lead by an average of 13.4 points at half, and they also led Vanderbilt by 17 at the break in Nashville two weeks ago. This Vandy squad is 297th in average first half margin, simply can’t shoot, and should get held down here by the country’s 3rd-best team for adjusted defensive efficiency. That and the motivational angle should send the Tigers to a big early lead tonight.
Degenerates
NBA Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets +0.5 First Quarter (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
The Suns have started some games slowly in recent weeks, and that’s not what you want to do against Brooklyn. In their home games, the Nets are 19-4-1 ATS on the first quarter number thanks to a plus-4.4 average margin. That margin is second only to Denver for home games this season, and with national TV in the house to see Kevin Durant’s return to Brooklyn I’d expect the Nets to come out with some intensity and cover this short number.
Tiny Nick is 2003-1804 ATS (+96.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.