Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) New Mexico/Boise State Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on FS1
New Mexico games have been absolutely wild this season, as the Lobos trot out one of the country’s least efficient defense. They’re dead last in opponent yards per play, and 131st in yards per point, leading to an 8-1 over record with their conference games averaging 65.6 points. They’ve allowed 52 and 56 points to the two best MWC offenses they’ve faced so far, and will get perhaps the best one yet tonight.
Boise State has reached the 30 point mark in every conference game so far this season, playing some fairly tough defenses along the way. They should absolutely light New Mexico up here as they fight for bowl eligibility. But the Broncos have almost as poor defensive metrics as the Lobos, ranking 127th in opponent yards per play so they’ll give up plenty here too. With perfect conditions in Boise, this should be a track meet on the Smurf Turf.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) USC @ Oregon -8.5 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:30 PM CT on FOX
Sadly for the Trojans they have absolutely nothing left to play for after starting the season with national title hopes. Their train wreck of a defense saw to dashing those dreams, and I don’t think USC will show any improvement on that side of the ball by just firing Alex Grinch this week. Certainly not against an Oregon team who has everything to play for and continues to look incredibly focused in that mission.
The Ducks have been an absolute wagon in the first half this season behind maybe the most balanced offensive attack in the country. This is a big spot for them to run out a high-profile opponent and make a statement, which I think they get done early and often against a completely deflated USC squad.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Oregon First Half Team Total Over 23.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
The Ducks are deadly in the first half of games, scoring the third-most points in the country at 24.0 overall and 30.3 in home games. Those stats have been compiled without having played USC’s defense yet that’s 109th in first half points allowed. I’ll be very surprised if Oregon’s comfortable first half lead is not on the back of 4-plus touchdowns.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Rutgers/Iowa Under 27.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on BTN
If you’re the kind of person who slows down to stare at car crashes, then this might be the game for you. Yes the total is hilariously low; no, it’s not low enough for how ugly this should be. I just don’t see how we’re getting more than 4 touchdowns in this game, especially since that’s like an entire season of offensive production for Iowa.
That atrocious Hawkeyes offense is finally up against another good defensive team, as Rutgers grades out extremely well against both the run and pass. The Scarlet Knights had Ohio State’s offense on the ropes until late in last week’s game, and should have their easiest time defensively since facing Temple in September. I realize that everyone is jumping on the under in this game, but that’s fine because these are two of the toughest defenses in the country and possibly the most inept offense in Iowa.
Tiny Nick is 1610-1443 ATS (+79.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.