Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
Welcome to the NBA’s in-season tournament, at least the group play stage. It really doesn’t sound that exciting or like it will mean anything to the spread, but this is still a lower number than I expected to see. The Bucks have taken some embarrassing beatdowns lately as they seem to be trying to gel on the court, but this is the perfect bounce-back opportunity for them.
They’re back at home after getting run out of Toronto, and on national TV as well, so motivation should be fairly high. With a Knicks team in the house that’s 30th in scoring and 29th in shooting, Milwaukee should be able to jump on them early. I’m looking for one of their usual fast starts here in a game that should mean something to them besides whatever this tournament is supposed to mean.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets -3.5 First Half (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
I’m targeting another team here in what should be a bounce-back spot, as the Nuggets come back home after getting blown out by the Wolves. How that happened is still a mystery, but I can’t imagine Denver is very happy about it.
They should be able to get back on track here at home where they’ve thrived in first halves, owning the league’s second-best average margin last season at plus-6.4 points. The Nuggets have picked up where they left off so far this year, leading their two home games at the break by 9 and 13 points.
While Dallas has had a strong 4-0 start to the season, they have a minus-0.3 average first half margin against a very questionable schedule. The defending champs looking for a bounce-back on national TV is a much taller task for a Mavs team that has struggled to defend, and should be without Kyrie Irving again tonight. That should allow the Nuggets to jump on Dallas early and post a comfortable halftime lead.
Degenerates
NBA Washington Wizards +9.5 @ Miami Heat (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports Sun
I’m very hesitant to put green money on this Wizards team that seems like the most unserious bunch the NBA has ever seen. There’s a high probability that they spent yesterday’s off day partying on South Beach and will have the Miami flu tonight. But the other thing I can’t wrap my head around is the Heat laying this big of a number.
They’re being priced like the team that made the NBA Finals, but are playing nowhere near it. With Miami’s lone win being a nailbiter against Detroit, this team is not in good form and might be without Jimmy Butler tonight. The Wizards are going to be an extremely high variance team this season with their rec league offense, so it’s games like this that they could easily surprise everyone by staying competitive.
Tiny Nick is 1571-1420 ATS (+69.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.