Golf betting tips: Omega European Masters

2pts e.w. Alexander Bjork at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

2pts e.w. Antoine Rozner at 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Yannik Paul at 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Edoardo Molinari at 100/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Jorge Campillo at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Oliver Wilson at 300/1 (bet365, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

In some ways it is appropriate that a process which began last September ends at the top of a mountain, where some of the finest young players in Europe will complete their bids for Ryder Cup selection. Luke Donald has six picks and might now wish he had none, such are the options at his disposal. He’ll name them on Monday.

This isn’t to say that Europe has the luxury enjoyed by their opponents, who could leave a two-time major winner at home. The point is that beyond the guaranteed eight, Donald could name any four of a dozen players who are hard to separate. Is there a chance he names one Hojgaard twin and takes the other one too, in case a swap is needed?

In other ways, it is wholly inappropriate that this is where the talking stops. Not only is Crans-sur-Sierre one of the quirkiest courses on the calendar, meaning any one of the contenders could be made to look out of sorts, but two weeks from now is the DP World Tour’s flagship event. It would be a shame were Europe to name their 12 then watch the 13th man win at Wentworth.

Just how much emphasis Donald is placing on this fortnight is hard to say, but I hope it’s on the lower side. ‘Stick to the plan’ was once the Team Europe mantra and if that plan involved Adrian Meronk, then perhaps it still should. And if Donald has determined, as he should have, that he can’t go to Rome without Nicolai Hojgaard, then how he copes in the thin Alps air shouldn’t matter one bit.

What will matter is who qualifies and, on both European and World points lists, that also remains uncertain. Favourite Matt Fitzpatrick isn’t here because of that – he’ll be in the team whether he overtakes Tommy Fleetwood or not – but Robert MacIntyre most certainly is, as he looks to hold onto the place he’s occupied since that fabulous performance at the Scottish Open.

MacIntyre will play regardless, at least that’s my expectation, but unlike Fitzpatrick he can’t be certain of a wildcard pick. We saw on Sunday how much it meant to him to finish with two excellent putts, moving just a fraction further clear of his pursuers in that points battle, and those moments, just as in Scotland, will serve him well when he does head out for Europe four weeks from now.

I wouldn’t put it beyond the Scot to seal his place in style but he’s not yet been a factor in Crans, where his aggression can be costly, and the top of this market is packed with players who are more effective under different conditions. The exception is of course the favourite, Fitzpatrick, but he’s not done enough to convince me he’s at his best, albeit he may not have to be to take this title for a third time.

Rasmus Hojgaard won here in 2021 but apart from a smash-and-grab Sunday in Denmark has been generally quiet, and those three powerhouses ahead of him in the betting are going to have to show a different set of skills than that which was required last week.

Bjork to Post winning number?

Crans, with its tiny, raised greens, suffocating tree-lines and sweeping undulations, is a game of chess. It requires outstanding wedge play, control of distance, and a good pair of hands. Yes, it’s possible to drive the green at the fifth, sixth and seventh, but most players will only try it on the last of the three and the bigger hitters can reach that seventh green with an iron or hybrid anyway.

The formula down the years has been to hit a lot of greens, any putt representing something of a birdie chance. A small few have scrambled their way to the title and some deadly putters are on the roll-of-honour, but above all else the requirement is to produce quality approaches, particularly with short-irons, while taking advantage of the scoring holes.

For ALEXANDER BJORK, it’s exactly the right kind of course, even after a soaking in the run-up, and one of just a handful where I’m happy to back him.

Bjork is without doubt heading towards the best season of his career. Seven top-10s is a Tour-high figure, nobody can better his 69.50 scoring average, and he’s second in strokes-gained total. He has done everything but win.

That winning part is the problem. He’s managed it once, four years ago in China, but since then has always found somebody too good, whether at the end of a proper battle with Eddie Pepperell at Walton Heath, or when Daniel Gavins holed spectacularly to edge him out at Al Hamra back in February.

Everyone ahead of him and several of those behind have been more prolific and he definitely has questions to answer, but Bjork’s limitations as a player are probably the main factor. When you drive the ball he does, shorter than almost anyone on the DP World Tour, chances to win won’t come along often. He’s never held a clear 54-hole lead.

So, what we need is a course where his accuracy counts and his lack of power isn’t a problem, and we have it here. At this kind of altitude even Bjork hits it far enough to get to the back-nine par-fives in two, with the ninth hole a lay-up for a good chunk of the field anyway. He’s gained strokes here off the tee in each of the last two years, so his driver really isn’t a handicap.

Bjork’s overall record at the course speaks to how much it suits him. All told he has played in the event five times and produced on each occasion, even if he had to withdraw in 2018. Either side of that his results read 16-28-13-16 and since strokes-gained data became available in 2019, we’ve been able to see that quality iron play has been the driving force behind his success.

Traditional greens-in-regulation rankings of fifth and first across his last two underline that fact and his iron play has never been better. He’s the only player on the circuit gaining upwards of a stroke per round and is guaranteed to eclipse last year’s figure of +0.43, just as he should top his 15th-ranked +0.72 from 2021.

Still one of the best putters around, ranking inside the top 10, fourth in scrambling and 17th in strokes-gained around-the-green, Bjork’s game has only one flaw, and that flaw doesn’t tend to be exposed by this golf course.

As for his recent form, he was the halfway leader in Prague before a nightmare start to round three, which returns us to that point around his ability under the gun. There was big pressure on him on Saturday, part of a potential Ryder Cup battle with Nicolai Hojgaard, and he failed miserably before a breezy, bogey-free final round when all hope was gone.

That’s the nagging doubt, but this is his battlefield and a continuation of his form gets him back in the mix. From there I’m prepared to take my chances at a course that doesn’t put him immediately on the back foot.

Can Paul throw a spanner in the works?

If victory for Bjork would be a minor headache for Donald, who would likely overlook him regardless, then YANNIK PAUL might be migraine material – yet I do think it’s a possibility.

Paul will leapfrog MacIntyre should he capture this title and with the greatest of respect to him, that would change Donald’s plans. I simply cannot see how the German, consistently good though he has been for a year or more, would command selection given the options available.

As an ardent Europe supporter I’d rather he didn’t do that but we’ll have to remove such emotive aspects and focus on a game which really could be ideal for Crans. Paul relies on precision approach play above all, ranking 11th this season, and so small tend to be his misses that his scrambling stats are top-class, too.

That’s a very similar profile to the likes of Richie Ramsay and Sebastian Soderberg, as well as some of the more high-profile champions, and Paul is looking to become the fourth course debutant in succession to capture this title. All three before him did it after a top-10 finish, and that’s exactly what he mustered in Prague.

It’s worth noting Paul skipped both the Czech Masters and this event last year and he did well to overcome that lack of experience at Albatross, a course I would think suits him less than this might. We’ve seen him show up on several more technical, some might say fiddly tests, with top-10s in Belgium, Sweden, Japan, France and Spain, and eighth at the Belfry might also be a good pointer through Rasmus Hojgaard.

Ordinarily, the biggest concern for any first-timer would be how they adjust to the altitude, but that shouldn’t apply here. Paul went to the University of Colorado and spends most of his time away from the Tour at his base in Scottsdale, so making adjustments is second nature. That would’ve applied to last year’s winner, while Soderberg had shown his hand in Kenya, too.

I’d be more worried about him finding the occasion too much, but he was very impressive when breaking through in Mallorca and we saw any number of Ryder Cup candidates step up last week, himself included. Whether or not he can get the job done and deny someone a wildcard as a result I don’t know, but there’s a good chance he’s in contention.

It’s a long time since Romain Langasque produced his top-10 here but the Frenchman is a genius around the green and could go well with a bit of luck. No doubt he’ll seek to take the course on and there’s a boom-or-bust element to his profile that does appeal at 50/1, odds which underestimate the consistently strong form he’s displayed this year.

Preference though is for his compatriot ANTOINE ROZNER, an admittedly obvious selection but one with plenty of upside at 28/1 or bigger.

Rozner is a three-time DP World Tour champion including this season in Mauritius, where he offered a reminder of how good he is under pressure. That was again on display at the Hero Cup and while not particularly on the Ryder Cup radar and highly unlikely to be selected in any scenario, you could argue he deserves to be.

The reason for backing him here though requires far less speculation: he’s simply shown that he knows how to play this course very effectively, something I’m not sure form figures of 13-4 even do justice to. In both of these two appearances, which include a final-round 62 on debut and then 65-64-66 over the closing 54 holes last year, Rozner has led the tee-to-green stats, putting to a pretty abysmal standard.

Maybe there’s something about these greens that will forever fox him, but he’d been struggling with his putter prior to both those visits whereas this time, there’s been just enough encouragement across the Open and the Czech Masters, both times on slow greens. They won’t be quite as slow in Crans, but seldom are they genuinely quick and they won’t be after Monday’s rain.

If Rozner putts as he did last week (32nd) then he’d have every chance based on his past exploits here. Were he to putt how he did in the Open (12th), then you would have to expect improvement on last week’s 22nd, which looked set to be better until three bogeys over the final five holes hid much of his good work.

He’s one of the more obvious selections you’ll find on these pages but I really like him as a wedge and short-iron player, who also has the power to attack some of those risk-reward holes if he wishes to, and can reach the ninth if he finds the fairway.

Vice captain can show them how it’s done

I mentioned Kenya earlier and that’s the number one place to go looking for form pointers. Of course, the best players have generally not travelled to play there in the spring, but time and again the Kenya Open has thrown up massive clues, most notably in 2019 when Soderberg, Lorenzo Gagli and Kalle Samooja were part of the play-off.

Thriston Lawrence and Matt Wallace, last year’s dominant duo, have both contended in Kenya from just a couple of visits, as have several of those in behind. All kinds of lowly-ranked players have played well at altitude in Nairobi and at altitude here in Switzerland and digging through those leaderboards is a must.

I had to go all the way back to 2007 for the clue I wanted, one that points towards former Crans runner-up EDOARDO MOLINARI.

Molinari’s breakthrough Challenge Tour campaign began with victory up at high altitude in Colombia and then saw him double his tally in Nairobi, at the same course where Soderberg would capture his first title some years later.

We of course know Crans is a good course for Molinari already, because he was runer-up here in 2010, during a spell when he carded 18 successive rounds of par or better at Crans. In four appearances from 2009 to 2014, few played it better.

And while he’s not made an impact since, last year’s 29th was further evidence that, at his best, Molinari is well suited to this course. It came after four missed cuts in a row and despite a balky putter, Dodo ranking seventh in the field for strokes-gained tee-to-green.

His form one year on is better and statistically speaking, there are only four players in this field who are superior to him from tee-to-green based on 2023 evidence. As well as ranking sixth in that category, he’s inside the top 20 in fairways, eighth in greens, ninth in strokes-gained approach, and well above average around the greens.

The issue is the putter, and it has been for some time. Currently 152nd for the season, it’s the one thing preventing the veteran from winning again. And it’s the one thing he’s sought to address, switching to the broomhandle in Prague having sought the advice of Adam Scott during the Open Championship.

Although Molinari said he was still getting to grips with putting from long range, close up he said he felt better than ever, and come the end of the week he’d produced his best putting stats of the season. There’s still more to do, but 29th is the sort of ranking that makes him dangerous now moving to a more familiar and more suitable course.

Whether he can put together four rounds we’ll see, and there’s a chance the Ryder Cup is a distraction as he’ll again be grouped with wildcard candidates, but at three-figure prices he’s a must for the staking plan. Anything 80/1 and upwards rates excellent value.

Several recent selections made the shortlist, with Danish sluggers Niklas Norgaard and Marcus Helligkilde both seemingly close to contending. Marcus Kinhult arrives on a trio of top-20s and hasn’t missed a cut in an age so he too is of some interest having shown what he can do at this course and in Kenya down the years.

Preference this time is for JORGE CAMPILLO, winner of the Kenya Open earlier this year.

That’s now three victories in less than five seasons for the experienced Spaniard, always when scoring is a little tougher than it was in Prague, and I felt he did enough at the Czech Masters to suggest he could return to his best here.

That course, where he’d missed the cut previously, is no good for a short hitter like him and while he was very poor in the Open, before that Campillo had produced marginally his best effort yet at The Renaissance, on the back of a top-15 in Germany.

He’s not in the red-hot form we saw in the spring but conditions have been against him and that will no longer be the case at Crans, where things have clicked lately. Campillo shot a second-round 65 in 2018, and in both 2021 and 2022 found himself right in the mix throughout, closing with a 66 for fourth place last year.

Strong approach work and good putting have been behind his success in Switzerland and while we do need to see improvement with his irons, that’s possible now there’s a shift in emphasis.

Campillo looks excellent value at 100/1 and a bet at upwards of 66s.

Outsiders complete shortlist

John Catlin’s eye-catching course debut plus last week’s encouragement both go down as notable but I’d be more tempted by the class of Erik van Rooyen, sixth at altitude in the Barracuda three starts ago and having shown a fondness for Crans in the past.

Van Rooyen is hard to assess but a second-round 63 in the Scottish Open plus two top-10s on the PGA Tour offer some hope, and he said he was feeling like his old self in Scotland. My concern would be that he’s now working with Sean Foley, who evidently is keen to make significant changes to his swing, and that’s a red flag in the short-term.

James Morrison has rounds of 60 and 64 to his name from his last two visits to Crans and is playing better than he has for some time, so the standout 400/1 has to be of interest given his accuracy off the tee and silky short-game, but my final selection is OLIVER WILSON.

Wilson made the staking plan at 250/1 last year, showed some promise with a Friday 64 to make the cut, and then won in Denmark the following week – without doubt the lowlight of an otherwise good few months.

The case for him hasn’t changed. Wilson finished no worse than 23rd on his first five starts at Crans, contending all the way through to the final round in four of them, and has always had the game for the course. At his best he’s a fine iron player and his short-game can be absolute dynamite.

Even when at his lowest he could be competitive here and if we forgive last week’s missed cut on a long, soft, driver-heavy course, after four weeks off, then he’s played well throughout summer, most notably when runner-up at the Belfry.

Two narrow missed cuts followed that but he did very little wrong when 33rd in the Open at Hoylake a month ago. During that week, Wilson spoke to GolfMagic and said: “My game is probably in as good a shape as it’s been in many a year, if not ever really.

“I want to win before the end of the season, I really do. I want to have a strong second half of the year. My main goal is to beat last year. I always try to improve on the last year, that would always be my end goal.

“I’d like to get into the DP World Tour Championship at the end of the season, that would be really nice but that will be a byproduct of continuing to build on the process I’m currently making on Tour.

“I just want to play solid, get my game in good shape heading into next year and then hopefully build all of the good habits and processes in place and keep riding them out. I believe there is a lot of good stuff to come in the future.”

There aren’t many better courses for him than this one and he’s preferred to Morrison among the English players looking to keep up the winning run, although watch for Richard Mansell, a friend of Todd Clements who placed here on debut. His game was in better shape then but he has stacks of ability and all the inspiration he could need.

Posted at 1700 BST on 28/08/23

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