Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Colorado Team Total Under 31.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on FOX
Too much hype, too much public love, and a tough situational spot have me looking to fade Colorado here. After the Buffaloes shocked the world and spent all week reading their press clippings, I’m not buying that they can get back up for this game and maintain focus. Classic let-down spots like this are an unquantifiable but real element in college football, and I think that takes a toll.
I’m also expecting Nebraska to look good on defense again, while also using size advantages to dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball. Their physical ground game with excellent running QB Jeff Sims should help burn clock and limit Colorado’s possessions. The Buffs might win this game, but I think their offense takes a step back in what should be a lower-scoring game.
NCAA Football (0.25 Unit) Iowa/Iowa State Under 36.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on FOX
I wish my future fellow Iowa State alums from the football team would quit betting and just let me handle it, that’s more than enough for all of us. I’m mostly getting involved in this game for the hilarity of what the Cy-Hawk rivalry has become. I’m expecting another ugly one here after the past 4 meetings have averaged 28.0 points. I’m not sure how much of this game I’ll be able to stomach with how slow-paced it will be and the offensive futility from both teams. But sharp bettors I’ve listened to this week think the only number they’d consider the over on is around 31, so I’ll jump on this ugly under.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Ole Miss/Tulane Over 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN2
This top-20 tilt should be one of the more compelling games of the week, and it should come with plenty of points. The Lane Kiffin offense at Ole Miss is still firing on all cylinders, with an excellent quarterback room and maybe the SEC’s most dangerous running back in Quinshon Judkins. Elite offenses gave Tulane trouble last year and they lost their top 4 tacklers, so the Rebels should keep putting up big numbers after rolling up 667 yards and 73 points on poor little Mercer last week.
The big key for me here is the offense of Tulane that I expected to take a step back with Tyjae Spears off to the pros. But quarterback Michael Pratt showed a new element of his game last week with excellent downfield passing against what was supposed to be a tough South Alabama defense. The Ole Miss defense is far from strong as this team is just built to win shootouts, and that’s what I think we see on a hot day in New Orleans that will drain these defenses.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Kent State @ Arkansas -38 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on SEC Network
Out of the frying pan and into the fire for this Kent State team that I’ll be looking to go against all season. The Golden Flashes looked every bit like the roster that was supposed to be among the country’s worst in Week 1, getting run over by Central Florida. Their biggest problem was being completely helpless against the UCF run game that put up 389 yards and 8.5 per carry.
Those struggles will continue here against an Arkansas team that was 5th nationally in rushing last season, and bring back both Raheim Sanders and KJ Jefferson. The Razorbacks did whatever they wanted against FCS Western Carolina last week, running away by 43 points. The Hogs can name their score here against what might as well be another FCS roster, and will probably keep scoring accidentally while trying to run out the clock.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Washington First Half Team Total Over 28 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network
Washington got blanked in the first quarter last week as it took some time for their offense to get rolling. They dropped 28 in the second and ended up scoring 56 points, so I’d say the Huskies shook off whatever jitters there were. I think that offense keeps rolling and actually starts when the game does this week.
Michael Penix and perhaps the best receiving corps in the country put up those video game numbers against a Boise team that was 1st nationally in opponent completion percentage last year. While Tulsa isn’t terrible against the pass, they have no experience with an offense like this and won’t see anything like it all year. There is a concerted effort to keep Penix squarely in the Heisman race, so I see the Huskies throwing it all over the yard early and often today.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Wisconsin/Washington State Over 58 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ABC
Another offense in the Pac12 that looked absolutely elite but was lost among bigger headlines was this Washington State team. The Cougars put up a 50 spot behind quarterback Cameron Ward’s 451-yard day through the air. It was against a much less talented defense from Colorado State, but I’m a firm believer that Wisconsin’s defense is not the unit it has been in years past.
The Badgers allowed a bad Buffalo offense to put up 17 points despite awfulness on third and fourth downs, so the high-flying attack of Wazzu should be able to produce. And if Wisconsin is smart, they’ll unleash Tanner Mordecai and the revamped passing game here against a porous Cougars secondary. With the two-headed monster of Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi in the backfield, Wisconsin should be in position to score all day and keep pace with the high-powered Cougars.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Stanford/USC Over 69.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on FOX
I’m going to miss the Pac12 after dark, because these games rarely disappoint if you’re looking for shootouts. Neither of these teams wants to take their foot off the gas offensively, and both have significant issues on defense with tackling. Those things alone create essentially unlimited potential for explosive plays, and I see both teams generating offense all night.
If USC is going to keep scoring like they have, then there simply is no upper limit to the totals for their games. Dropping 56 and 66 points against Mountain West opponents is actually fairly predictive for this game since Stanford was gutted by the transfer portal, and don’t have the same defensive identity as in years past. With an offensive-minded head coach and up-tempo style, the Cardinal should have no issue with trading shots here.
The Trojans should want to keep putting up ridiculous numbers to pad the Heisman campaign for Caleb Williams, and I think their defense also struggles against the style and personnel that Stanford brings. This is a big number, but 10 touchdowns doesn’t seem like that many considering USC has visited the end zone 17 times themselves in just two games.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Auburn/California Over 54.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN
Ok Cal, I see you, and while hanging 58 on North Texas is a lot different than facing an SEC defense, I still think we’re in for plenty of points here. The Golden Bears went wild both on the ground and through the air last week, but it’s the 347 rushing yards that have my attention. Auburn’s weakness defensively last week appeared to be on the ground, and this far better rushing attack should give them problems.
But the Tigers also showed what they’re capable of offensively under Hugh Freeze by dropping 59 points on an admittedly overmatched UMass defense. I still have concerns about Cal’s defense under Justin Wilcox who has lost some of his defensive mojo, and SEC talent should give them trouble tonight. Everything I’m seeing says Pac12 games are mostly going to be wild with all those quality offenses, and combining them with an SEC team should produce a busy night on the scoreboard.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1488-1325 ATS (+72.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.