Locks
MLB (0.6 Unit) Washington Nationals/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9.5 (-120; Odds via BetMGM): 5:40 PM CT on NBCS-PH
The Nationals showed what their offense is capable of against poor pitching, especially poor left-handed pitching, in their surprising sweep of the Reds this weekend. So putting them in this situation might be perfect for them to keep the bats hot, as they’ll face a struggling lefty in a tough spot.
The regression continues for Ranger Suarez who has allowed a 4.66 ERA and .336 opponent batting average the past 30 days. He’s also posted a 5.70 ERA at home, and the Nats have a cumulative .329 average against him in their careers. Washington just continues to have success against lefties, leading MLB in weighted runs created and ranking near the top in basically every category, so that should continue here against the struggling Suarez.
But the Nats will certainly give up plenty of runs here to a similarly hot Phillies offense that crushed bad Royals pitching over the weekend, and has scored 46 runs against Washington in the 6 meetings this season. Nationals starter Trevor Williams has allowed a career .315 average and 1.085 OPS to the Phillies lineup, so we should see plenty of scoring from both teams tonight.
MLB (0.65 Unit) Texas Rangers -1.5 @ Oakland A’s (-130; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA
Highlighting the absurdity and variance of baseball, the Oakland A’s have two wins over division-leading Texas this season. But the other five meetings have all gone to the Rangers, and by a wide margin, which only makes it even more absurd. The Rangers have a plus-32 run differential against the Athletics in those wins, all of which covered the run line. So if you think the Rangers are going to win, it’s likely they’ll do so by a comfortable margin.
That’s how I see this game playing out thanks to a massive starting pitcher mismatch. Texas will start Dane Dunning who continues to impress, and he should have no trouble with the team that’s the lowest-scoring with the worst batting average against righties. The Rangers should pound Ken Waldichuk though given their excellence against lefties, and then move on to punishing the awful Oakland bullpen since Waldichuk’s starts are always very short. This is just too much of a mismatch overall, and I’ll gladly pay the juice to see the Rangers roll again.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1440-1272 ATS (+74.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.