Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Houston Astros Team Total Over 4.5 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 12:35 PM CT on YES
I’ll keep this simple because it’s all about Carlos Rodon here, and my full distrust of him. The prized Yankee acquisition that was supposed to lead their comeback from the AL East cellar has done basically nothing to help. He’s posted a 5.90 expected-ERA basically in line with his 6.29 ERA, and a fielding independent of 6.93 that says he’s actually over performing. Against a fully healthy Astros lineup that’s been one of the best against lefties lately, I think Rodon is the main cause of Houston clearing this number.
MLB (1 Unit) KC Royals/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:35 PM CT on MLB Network
This Royals offense has really turned it on, finally figuring out how to score in bunches during this surprising 7-1 stretch where they’ve averaged 6.6 runs per game. They’ll need all the help they can get with Zack Greinke making another road start where he’s been an abject disaster for two seasons now. Greinke has a 7.40 ERA on the road this year, and that’s ballooned to 10.24 over his past 4 road starts.
Shorter appearances are also becoming the norm for the aging Greinke, completing 6 innings just 3 times this year. That brings the horrific Kansas City bullpen into play, which the Phillies exploited last night as part of a second straight slugfest. I think Philly is the main driver of pushing this over the total, but their starter Taijuan Walker was not sharp in July and the Royals bats are hot. So on a day with ideal hitting conditions at Citizens Bank Park, this should be a third straight over for these clubs.
MLB (1 Unit) LA Dodgers/San Diego Padres Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
It’s extremely rare to see a total this high at Petco, as the conditions in San Diego tend to naturally limit run production. But after 15 and 11 runs in the first two games of this series, I think this total is more than justified, especially given the starting pitcher matchup.
Why the Dodgers went out and got Lance Lynn while the Padres went out and got Rich Hill is beyond me for two teams with World Series aspirations. I think those two gas can starters with 6.32 and 4.78 ERA’s, respectively, get this game off to a high-scoring start.
But as we saw last night it doesn’t end there, as the Padres knocked around the LA bullpen for 7 runs late in the game. Neither of these starters has what it takes to hold up for long outings against elite offenses, bringing the relievers into play and helping to get this game over a justifiably big number.
WNBA (1 Unit) Las Vegas Aces -2.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:00 PM CT on ABC
In this matchup of the two WNBA super teams, it’s pretty obvious that Las Vegas is on a different level. The Aces and Liberty might be the teams with the highest NET ratings in first halves, but again Las Vegas distinguishes themselves, especially lately. The Aces have led by no fewer than 7 points at half in all of their 8 straight wins, and led the Liberty by 7 at halftime in the first meeting.
New York meanwhile enters in not the best form, only holding a halftime lead in 2 of their past 6 while struggling both offensively and defensively. I can’t attribute that long of a downswing to looking ahead for this game, but the Aces are definitely the wrong team to face when not playing your best ball. The Liberty might get up for this game, but it just doesn’t seem to matter against the Aces right now who I see putting on a show for the national TV audience.
WNBA (1 Unit) Chicago Sky Team Total Over 78.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN3
Sometimes a team just has another team figured out. That seems to be the case with Chicago against Dallas, as the Sky have hung 94 and 104 points to punctuate their 2-0 mark against the Wings. Dallas is installed as a massive favorite here to bounce back in this second of the split doubleheader, but that just lowers Chicago’s isolated number to a stunningly low number.
The Sky have figured out the offense in general lately, going over this total with ease in 4 of their past 5 games. They seem to know how to exploit the ultra-fast pace of Dallas, which doesn’t seem likely to change here. The full game spread and total have just inexplicably created extra value on Chicago’s total here, and I have to jump on it given their success against the Wings so far this year.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1436-1271 ATS (+71.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.