Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/LA Dodgers Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA
The Dodgers to pile up runs against a left-handed starter is a bet I’m eager to make every chance I get. While Yusei Kikuchi has been fairly strong for Toronto this season, he has definitely struggled against teams that can produce against lefties. He’s also been far more forgiving on the road, allowing a batting average 60 points higher and struggling with home runs. Going up against the Dodgers who are 4th in scoring against lefties and woke the bats up last night could be bad news for Kikuchi and the Jays.
But I think Toronto keeps their strong hitting going today against LA starter Tony Gonsolin, whose inevitable regression has seen him post a 6.97 ERA his past 6 starts. He’s also been far worse in day games like this one with a 6.98 ERA. The awful Dodger bullpen is also in rough shape here after working consecutive extra-inning games, so the Jays should keep the offense rolling and help to cash this over.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles ML @ Philadelphia Phillies (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:05 PM CT on NBCS-PH
More disrespect for the team with the best record in the American League here, as I believe Baltimore should probably be favored. Much like Monday when they cashed as underdogs, I think they have the advantage on the mound tonight. I’ll be fading Ranger Suarez as much as possible now that his luck has finally started to run out this month, posting a 6.14 ERA and 1.86 WHIP the past 4 starts.
The Orioles aren’t elite against lefties like Suarez, but they are extremely consistent and actually rank 5th in scoring for that split. I don’t think they’ll need much with Kyle Bradish starting who has been locked in lately. The Oriole righty has just a 1.07 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this month, and is of course backed up by the best bullpen around. The Phillies have really struggled to score lately, and I think that bites them today and allows Baltimore to further their excellent road record.
MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Angels/Detroit Tigers Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
The best part about taking an over when the Angels play is it’s never dead thanks to their bullpen. That unit has been the worst in baseball over the past month, showing it again last night to push a dead under game well over the total. LA is 7-3 over this total since the All-Star break, and their past 20 games overall have averaged 11.6 runs.
The starters in this one look like regression candidates for me, especially Michael Lorenzen for the Tigers. Their lone All-Star has not allowed a run in any of his 3 starts this month, but those have come against teams that just can’t hit righties. The Halos should be able to get to him while Patrick Sandoval regresses towards his June self that posted a 7.11 ERA. But with bad and used-up bullpens set to get some action tonight, this is a situation where it’s never under until it’s over.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers +0.5 First 5 Innings @ Houston Astros (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on SportsNet SW
It’s a little tough for me to believe that Houston is going to sweep this series, and I’m tempted by the Rangers on the run line tonight, but ultimately have to stay away due to heavy juice. Early in the game though is where I think Texas has a significant advantage, and this price on getting half a run is too good to pass up.
It starts with Andrew Heaney who goes for the Rangers tonight, and he’s yet to allow a run to Houston in two starts against them this season. This bet would have cashed in both those games, as it would have in 6 of the 9 meetings all year.
One of those was the lone start for Framber Valdez who gave up 5 runs. Valdez has struggled lately with a 5.79 ERA his past 4 starts, and is facing perhaps the best offense against left-handed pitching. Texas is definitely a live dog in this one, but I’ll take the nicely priced insurance on them being competitive early.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs -0.5 First 5 Innings @ Chicago White Sox (+130; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
Rumor has it that the Cubs are set to sell at the deadline, which makes tradeable assets like Marcus Stroman in a position where they’ll want to impress their future clubs. I think the Cubs righty does just that in today’s game, while the offense behind him continues their hot hitting.
Stroman has had a tough stretch lately against teams who can hit righties well, but that’s not the White Sox. The Southsiders are towards the bottom of MLB in just about every key metric against right-handed pitching. They’re also in a 3-8 slump since the All-Star break, and score the 3rd-fewest F5 runs at home.
The White Sox also have the major disadvantage of starting Lance Lynn again, who gets crushed just about every time he goes out. He’ll have to contend with a Cubs offense scoring 6.9 runs per game since the All-Star break, and jumped out to a big early lead last night. The price is definitely right here, and I see the Cubbies leading comfortably after 5 innings tonight.
Degenerates
PGA Tour Golf – 3M Open (Thu – Sun on Golf Channel and CBS)
Time to get back on track after a wild winner at the British Open last week! We are back home this week – really at home…in Minnesota for the 3M!
This is a non-designated event so a lot of rest for a lot of stars after jumping the pond. The rough at TPC Twin Cities is very manageable but in true Minnesota fashion, there’s trouble lurking in the waters. We are looking closely at Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green & GIR.
To Win
Sepp Straka +2500
Lucas Glover +3600
JJ Spaun +4300
Ryan Fox +5300
Top-20 Finish
Ryan Fox +280
Matthew NeSmith +450
Billy Horschel +550
Lanto Griffin +850
Head-to-head Matchups
Aaron Rai -120 vs. Cameron Davis
Cameron Young -115 vs. Tony Finau
Keith Mitchell -110 vs. Justin Suh
Doug Ghim -110 vs. Lee Hodges
Tiny Nick is 1417-1249 ATS (+71.0 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.